Outlook

The abuse of pharmaceutical drugs is likely to decline in the near term. MTF data indicate that rates of past year use for pharmaceutical narcotics, depressants, and stimulants have increased sharply from the early to mid-1990s to 2001-2002 but have since declined for nearly every surveyed age group. In fact, only rates of past year use for prescription narcotics among young adults (aged 19 to 28) have increased from 2001 (5.0%) to 2003 (8.5%). Rates of past year use for prescription stimulants and depressants have declined or remained stable for every surveyed age group from 2002 to 2003.

Despite a possible rise in the diversion of pharmaceutical drugs via the Internet, pharmaceutical drug diversion is likely to decrease overall in the near term. Sharp increases in law enforcement pressure on unscrupulous physicians as well as increasing use of statewide prescription monitoring programs could sharply reduce the illegal diversion of prescription drugs through illegal prescribing, prescription fraud, and doctor shopping. Moreover, increasing protection of pharmaceutical drug inventories at individual pharmacies will likely further reduce the amount of pharmaceuticals illegally diverted through theft.

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