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National Drug Intelligence Center

National Drug Threat Assessment 2005:
Threat Matrix
   
Product No. 2005-Q0317-006          February 2005

Overall Key Findings

Cocaine

Key Findings:

  • Powder cocaine use by adolescents decreased since 1999 while cocaine use among adults increased slightly.
  • Cocaine production declined from 700 mt in 2001 to 460 mt in 2003.
  • Increased seizures in Texas indicate it is the state through which most cocaine enters the U.S.

Source Locations:

  • Foreign: Colombia, Bolivia, Peru
  • Domestic: None

Seized En Route/Within U.S. in 2003:

  • 116,898 kg (233,000 kg reportedly available to U.S. markets)

Transit Countries:

  • Mexico, Central American countries, Caribbean island nations

Primary Entry Points into U.S.:

  • Southwest Border (SWB) states (Texas, California, Arizona, New Mexico); Miami/S Florida; New York City (NYC)

Primary Markets and Principal Suppliers:

  • Atlanta: Mexican, Colombian, Dominican
  • Chicago: Mexican, Colombian
  • Houston: Mexican, Colombian, Dominican, Jamaican
  • Los Angeles: Mexican
  • Miami: Colombian, Haitian
  • New York: Colombian, Dominican, Mexican

Wholesale Price Range in the U.S.:

  • $13,000-$30,000 per kg (powder)

Principal Retailers:

  • African American, Hispanic street gangs; African American, Caucasian, Cuban, Dominican, Haitian, and Puerto Rican independent dealers and criminal groups

Retail Price Range in the U.S.:

  • $25-$110 per gram (powder)
  • $10-$100 per rock (crack)

Projections:

  • Rates of cocaine use among adolescents likely will continue to decline.
  • Continued reduction of cocaine production in Colombia and interdiction of cocaine shipments in the transit zone may result in worldwide reductions of retail cocaine availability.

Methamphetamine

Key Findings:

  • Increasing methamphetamine availability in the Northeast region.
  • Ice availability has increased sharply since 2002.
  • Production of methamphetamine in Mexico is increasing.
  • Sharp increase in methamphetamine seizures at and between Arizona ports of entry (POEs).

Source Locations:

  • Foreign: Mexico and, to a much lesser extent, Southeast Asia
  • Domestic: California

Seized En Route/Within U.S. in 2003:

  • 3,845 kg

Transit Countries:

  • Mexican: Direct from source
  • SE Asian: Direct from source

Primary Entry Points into U.S.:

  • Mexican: SWB states (California, Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico)
  • SE Asian: California, Hawaii

Primary Markets and Principal Suppliers:

  • Los Angeles: Mexican, outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMGs)
  • Phoenix: Mexican
  • San Diego: Mexican
  • San Francisco: Mexican (Hawaiian, Filipino, and Asian DTOs distribute ice)

Wholesale Price Range in the U.S.:

  • $3,500-$99,000 per kg* (powder); $13,200-$154,000 per kg* (ice)

    *normally sold in pound quantities $1,600-$45,000 per pound (powder); $6,000-$70,000 per lb (ice)

Principal Retailers:

  • Mexican, Caucasian, and Asian criminal groups; Caucasian independent dealers; Asian and Hispanic street gangs; OMGs

Retail Price Range in the U.S.:

  • $20-$300 per gram (powder)
  • $60-$700 per gram (ice)

Projections:

  • Increases in foreign and domestic production should raise domestic methamphetamine availability.
  • Production and distribution of ice by Mexican criminal groups is likely to increase.

Marijuana

Key Findings:

  • Since 1994, marijuana emergency department (ED) mentions and treatment admissions increased.
  • U.S. marijuana production increasing partly because of increased involvement by U.S.-based Mexican DTOs.
  • Size of marijuana shipments from Canada increased.

Source Locations:

  • Foreign: Mexico, Colombia, Canada, Jamaica
  • Domestic: California, Appalachia (Tennessee, Kentucky), Hawaii, Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon)

Seized En Route/Within U.S. in 2003:

  • 1,225,000 kg (seizures in Texas, Arizona, California, and New Mexico account for 1,139,000 kg)

Transit Countries:

  • Mexican: Direct from source
  • Colombian: Mexico, Caribbean island nations
  • Canadian: Direct from source
  • Jamaican: Caribbean island nations

Primary Entry Points into U.S.:

  • Mexican: SWB states (primarily Texas and Arizona followed by California and New Mexico)
  • Colombian: Miami/S Florida, SWB states, New York City
  • Canadian: Northern Border states
  • Jamaican: Miami/S Florida, New York City

Primary Markets and Principal Suppliers:

  • Chicago: Mexican
  • Dallas/Houston: Mexican
  • Los Angeles/San Diego: Mexican, Jamaican; street gangs
  • Miami: Hispanic, Haitian, African American
  • New York: Jamaican, Mexican
  • Phoenix/Tucson: Mexican, Jamaican
  • Seattle: Caucasian, Hispanic, Vietnamese, OMGs

Wholesale Price Range in the U.S.:

  • $770-$4,400 per kg* (commercial-grade); $1,980-$13,200 per kg* (sinsemilla)

*normally sold in pound quantities $350-$2,000 per lb (commercial-grade); $900-$6,000 per lb (sinsemilla)

Principal Retailers:

  • Caucasian, Jamaican, African American, Hispanic, Asian, and Native American local independent dealers; African American and Hispanic street gangs; Jamaican, Mexican, and Asian criminal groups; OMGs; prison gangs

Retail Price Range in the U.S.:

  • $5-$50 per gram
  • $2-$10 per joint

Projections:

  • As DTOs continue to expand large-scale domestic cultivation operations, overall marijuana production in the U.S. will increase.
  • -Expansion of cannabis cultivation on public lands may increase the threat of violence against unsuspecting passersby.

Heroin

Key Findings:

  • Heroin treatment admissions increased each year since 1992.
  • Potential worldwide heroin production increased in 2002, 2003, and 2004 primarily because of increased production in Afghanistan.
  • Sharp increase in South American heroin seizures along Southwest Border.

Source Locations:

  • Mexico, Colombia, Southeast Asia (Burma, Laos, Thailand); Southwest Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan)

Seized En Route/Within U.S. in 2003:

  • 2,361.8 kg

Transit Countries:

  • Mexican (MX): Direct from source
  • South American (SA): Direct from source, Central/South American countries, Caribbean island nations, Mexico
  • Southeast Asian (SEA): China, SE Asian countries, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Canada
  • Southwest Asian (SWA): European and Central Asian countries, Canada

Primary Entry Points into U.S.:

  • MX: SWB states (primarily California and Texas followed by Arizona and New Mexico)
  • SA: Miami/S Florida, NYC, Newark, SWB states (primarily Texas)
  • SEA: NYC, Los Angeles, Northern Border states (Washington, Michigan, New York)
  • SWA: NYC, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, Washington, D.C.

Primary Markets and Principal Suppliers:

  • Chicago: Colombian (SA), Mexican (MX), Nigerian (SEA, SWA)
  • Los Angeles: Mexican
  • New York: Colombian, Dominican, Mexican, Chinese, Nigerian, Pakistani

Wholesale Price Range in the U.S.:

  • MX: $18,000-$50,000 per kg
  • SA: $52,000-$90,000 per kg
  • SEA: $40,000-$80,000 per kg
  • SWA: $60,000-$70,000 per kg

Principal Retailers:

  • African American (MX, SA), Asian (SEA, SWA), Caucasian (SA), Colombian (SA), Dominican (SA), Guatemalan (MX), Honduran (MX), Mexican (MX), Puerto Rican (SA) criminal groups; African American (MX, SA, SEA, SWA), Hispanic (MX, SA, SEA, SWA) street gangs

Retail Price Range in the U.S.:

  • $10 per dose (approximately 50-100 mg)

Projections:

  • Demand for heroin will remain lower than for other major drugs.
  • The increase in worldwide heroin production is unlikely to cause an increase in heroin availability in the U.S. because the increase is mostly attributed to Southwest Asian heroin, which is typically destined for Asian and European drug markets.

MDMA

Key Findings:

  • MDMA availability has decreased since 2001.
  • More adolescents perceive risk in using MDMA.
  • Decrease in MDMA smuggled directly to the U.S. from source areas. Asian DTOs increasingly are involved in MDMA trafficking and may become the primary domestic suppliers.

Source Locations:

  • Foreign: Netherlands, Belgium (also Poland, Germany, Canada, Latin America)
  • Domestic: Limited

Seized En Route/Within U.S. in 2003:

  • 1,319,492 du

Transit Countries:

  • Western European countries, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic

Primary Entry Points into U.S.:

  • New York City, Newark, Miami, Los Angeles (via international airports); Northern Border states (New York, Washington), Texas

Primary Markets and Principal Suppliers:

  • Los Angeles: Israeli, Russian, Asian

  • Miami: Russian, Israeli, Eastern European, Dominican (also Colombian, Caucasian)

  • New York: Israeli, Russian, (also Asian, Eastern European, Dominican, Colombian, OMGs, Traditional Organized Crime {TOC} groups)

Wholesale Price Range in the U.S.:

  • $4-$20 per du (1,000 du lots)

Principal Retailers:

  • Caucasian independent dealers; African American, Asian, and Hispanic street gangs; OMGs; prison gangs

Retail Price Range in the U.S.:

  • $6-$50 per du

Projections:

  • MDMA abuse likely to continue declining among all age groups.
  • MDMA smuggling across the Northern Border may increase as MDMA trafficking organizations avoid transporting the MDMA directly to the U.S. by first transporting the drug to Canada.

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Johnstown, PA 15901

Tel. (814) 532-4601
FAX (814) 532-4690
E-mail NDIC.Contacts@usdoj.gov

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McLean, VA 22102-3840

Tel. (703) 556-8970
FAX (703) 556-7807

Web Addresses

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     RISS:  ndic.riss.net

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