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Methamphetamine Drug Threat Assessment
March 2005
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Introduction and Trends

The threat posed to the United States by the trafficking and abuse of methamphetamine is high and increasing. Methamphetamine availability, production, and distribution are increasing nationally; however, national-level data do not indicate a clear trend--either increasing or decreasing--with respect to rates of methamphetamine use. Nevertheless, demand for the drug is relatively high. In fact, National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) 2003 data indicate that more than 1.3 million persons aged 12 or older used methamphetamine within the past year in 2003.

According to state and local law enforcement agencies, the threat associated with methamphetamine trafficking and abuse has increased sharply since 2002 and now exceeds that of any other drug. NDIC National Drug Threat Survey (NDTS) data show that the percentage of state and local law enforcement agencies that identified methamphetamine as the greatest drug threat in their areas has increased from 31.0 percent in 2002, to 36.2 percent in 2003, and 39.6 percent in 2004. NDTS 2004 data further indicate that, for the first time, the percentage of state and local agencies that identified methamphetamine as their greatest drug threat (39.6%) surpassed that of cocaine (35.6%), including crack, and is much higher than marijuana (12.0%), heroin (8.6%), or MDMA (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine, also known as ecstasy) (0.6%).

According to state and local law enforcement agencies, methamphetamine-related criminal activity has increased concurrently with the rise in the overall threat posed by the trafficking and abuse of the drug. NDTS data show that the percentage of state and local law enforcement agencies that identified methamphetamine as the drug that most contributes to violent crime increased from 31.6 percent in 2003 to 34.2 percent in 2004. Similarly, the percentage of state and local law enforcement agencies that identified methamphetamine as the drug that most contributes to property crime increased from 29.8 percent to 32.7 percent during the same period.

The attendant dangers occasioned by domestic methamphetamine production to individuals, property, and the environment contribute to the overall threat posed by the drug. Law enforcement personnel, first responders, clandestine laboratory operators, and those in proximity to laboratories, particularly children, often are injured as a result of chemical burns, fires, and explosions at clandestine laboratories. In fact, EPIC NCLSS data show that despite a decrease in the number of reported fires and explosions at methamphetamine laboratory sites (from 396 in 2002 to 361 in 2003), the number of reported law enforcement officers injured when responding to methamphetamine laboratories increased from 129 to 255 during the same period.

The environmental damage caused by improper storage and disposal of chemicals and chemical waste attendant to methamphetamine production is severe, and the cost of soil and structure remediation at contaminated methamphetamine production sites is significant. For example, the annual expenditure for domestic clandestine laboratory (predominantly methamphetamine laboratory) remediation by DEA has increased from $2 million in fiscal year (FY) 1995, to $12.2 million in FY1999, and $16.2 million in FY2003.

Child neglect and abuse are common within families whose parents or caregivers produce or use methamphetamine. According to the Department of Justice's Office for Victims of Crime, children who reside with methamphetamine users are more likely to experience neglect as well as physical, sexual, and mental abuse. Furthermore, children who are present in homes where methamphetamine laboratories also are present often sustain injuries, including skin lesions, chemical burns, and respiratory damage, due to drug or chemical exposure. For example, NCLSS 2003 data show that 66.0 percent (589 of 893) of the children reported present at seized methamphetamine laboratory sites subsequently tested positive for toxic levels of chemicals in their bodies.

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Figure 1. Six Regions and Primary Market Areas for methamphetamine.

Map of the U.S. showing the six regions and Primary Market Areas for methamphetamine.
d-link

San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Phoenix are leading consumption areas and leading distribution centers for the drug as determined through analysis of public health data and law enforcement reporting.

 

Availability

Methamphetamine availability has increased in the Northeast Region over the past year. All five DEA Field Divisions (Boston, New York, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C.) and five High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas (HIDTAs)--Appalachia, New England, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia/Camden, and Washington/Baltimore--in the Northeast Region report that methamphetamine availability has increased: one of the Field Divisions (Washington, D.C.) and the Appalachia HIDTA describe the increase as significant. Increasing methamphetamine availability in the Northeast Region also is indicated by data that show increases in the number of DEA arrests as well as Organized Crime Drug Enforcement Task Force (OCDETF) investigations and indictments in the region. According to DEA, the number of arrests for methamphetamine increased from 179 in 2002 to 198 in 2003. Similarly, the number of methamphetamine-related OCDETF case initiations in the Northeast Region increased from 2 in FY2002 to 12 in FY2003. The proportion of OCDETF indictments in which methamphetamine was charged increased from less than 1.0 percent in FY2002 to 12.0 percent in FY2003. Moreover, NCLSS data show that the number of reported methamphetamine laboratory seizures in the Northeast Region increased from 94 in 2002 to 143 in 2003. (See Figure 1.)

NDIC Comment: Anecdotal law enforcement reporting indicates that the increase in methamphetamine availability in the Northeast Region is due primarily to a significant increase in wholesale distribution by Mexican criminal groups. According to DEA, Mexican criminal groups are the predominant wholesale distributors of methamphetamine in the region, and their presence in the region is increasing, particularly in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. Law enforcement reporting also indicates that methamphetamine availability in the Northeast is being augmented significantly by a sharp increase in methamphetamine production within the region, particularly by individuals producing small quantities of the drug (usually ounce quantities per cook) in low capacity laboratories. NCLSS data indicate that the number of reported methamphetamine laboratory seizures in the Northeast Region increased from 94 in 2002 to 143 in 2003.

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Demand

National-level drug prevalence data indicate that rates of past year use for powder methamphetamine have fluctuated but decreased overall since 1999; however, the number of treatment admissions for methamphetamine has increased sharply over the same period. According to Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS) data for 2002, the number of methamphetamine treatment admissions to publicly funded drug treatment facilities increased from 58,795 in 1999, to 66,975 in 2000, to 81,799 in 2001, and 104,481 in 2002.

NDIC Comment: More individuals have independently sought treatment for methamphetamine; however, criminal justice referrals account for the greatest percentage of the increase. In fact, the percentage of treatment admissions for methamphetamine that were the result of criminal justice referrals now appears to account for most treatment admissions for methamphetamine (52.6%)--a rate much higher than for cocaine (26.1%) or heroin (13.0%). TEDS data indicate that the proportion of treatment admissions for abuse of methamphetamine/amphetamine (primarily methamphetamine) resulting from individuals requesting treatment increased from 26.8 percent in 1999 to 27.3 percent in 2000, but has since decreased to 26.0 percent in 2001 and 24.0 percent in 2002. Over the same period, the proportion of treatment admissions for methamphetamine/amphetamine based on criminal justice referrals decreased from 45.6 percent in 1999 to 45.0 percent in 2000, but then increased to 47.8 percent in 2001 and 52.6 percent in 2002.

 

Production

There are no conclusive estimates regarding methamphetamine production in Mexico; however, methamphetamine production appears to have increased sharply in Mexico since 2002. According to DEA, Mexican criminal groups, particularly those based in Colima, Michoacán, Jalisco, and Nayarit, have increased the number and size of methamphetamine laboratories that they operate in Mexico. Supporting the assertion of increased methamphetamine production in Mexico is an increase in the amount of methamphetamine seized in Mexico and at land POEs along the Southwest Border. Data from the International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR) indicate that the amount of methamphetamine reported seized in Mexico increased from 400 kilograms in 2001, to 457 kilograms in 2002, and 652 kilograms in 2003. Furthermore, 2003 EPIC data show that the amount of methamphetamine seized along the Southwest Border increased from 1,130 kilograms in 2002, to 1,733 kilograms in 2003, and 1,168 kilograms through July 2004.

NDIC Comment: Mexican criminal groups appear to be producing greater quantities of methamphetamine in Mexico for distribution in the United States because they have greater access in Mexico to bulk quantities of precursor chemicals, particularly ephedrine and pseudoephedrine. According to law enforcement reporting, Mexican criminal groups purchase bulk quantities of pseudoephedrine tablets, often more than 1 ton per shipment, from sources in China. Law enforcement reporting further indicates that many of the laboratories established during the past 2 years in Mexico are capable of producing multihundred-pound quantities of methamphetamine per production cycle. By comparison, NCLSS data indicate that the largest reported methamphetamine laboratory seized in the United States in 2003 was capable of producing 50 pounds per production cycle.

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Transportation

Drug seizure data indicate that methamphetamine smuggling from Mexico into the United States via the Arizona-Mexico border appears to have increased significantly. The amount of methamphetamine seized at or between Arizona POEs has increased from 168 kilograms in 2001, to 313 kilograms in 2002, and 640 kilograms in 2003. In fact, the amount of methamphetamine seized at or between POEs in Arizona in 2003 exceeded seizures at or between POEs in California (593 kg), Texas (484 kg), and New Mexico (16 kg).

NDIC Comment: The sharp increase in the amount of methamphetamine seized at or between POEs in Arizona is more likely an indication of an overall increase in methamphetamine smuggling from Mexico into the United States than a shift in smuggling routes in favor of Arizona POEs rather than California, New Mexico, or Texas POEs. EPIC data show that since 2002--the year law enforcement reporting indicates that methamphetamine production began to increase significantly in Mexico--methamphetamine seizures at or between POEs in California and Texas increased sharply, although not to the extent of the increases in Arizona. From 2002 to 2003 seizures at or between POEs in California and Texas increased from 478 to 593 kilograms and from 305 to 484 kilograms, respectively. Methamphetamine seizures at or between POEs in New Mexico were much lower than the other states along the U.S.-Mexico border in 2002 (33.53 kg) and 2003 (16.15 kg).

 

Distribution

Ice methamphetamine distribution has increased significantly since 2001 in many of the largest domestic methamphetamine markets. Anecdotal law enforcement reporting indicates that ice distribution has increased sharply in Honolulu, Houston, Denver, Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, and St. Louis since 2001. In some methamphetamine markets ice is now considered the preferred form of the drug, supplanting powder methamphetamine as the predominant type. For example, DEA and HIDTA reporting indicate that ice methamphetamine now is the type most often distributed locally in Phoenix and San Diego, two of the Primary Market Areas for methamphetamine.

NDIC Comment: Ice distribution has increased in these cities because of a sharp increase in ice production and distribution by Mexican criminal groups seeking the higher profit margins associated with ice distribution. The costs associated with ice production are slightly higher than those of powder methamphetamine, and ice production requires greater knowledge and experience; however, ice methamphetamine often is sold at prices much higher than those of powder methamphetamine (see Table 1).

Table 1. National Price Ranges, Methamphetamine, in Dollars, 2003
  Pound Ounce Gram
Powder 1,600-45,000 270-5,000 20-300
Ice 6,000-70,000 500-3,100 60-700

Source: Drug Enforcement Administration.


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