Outlook

As Mexican DTOs continue to establish a stronger presence in central and eastern U.S. drug markets, they will quite likely increase the amount of illicit drugs that they smuggle into and transship from the West Texas HIDTA region in order to supply wholesale distributors operating in central and eastern regions of the country. Although Atlanta is the primary destination for illicit drugs transported from West Texas to the east and is a distribution hub for drug shipments in the eastern United States, increasing amounts of drug shipments from West Texas may be sent directly to other eastern states where Mexican DTOs are establishing a stronger presence, such as North Carolina and South Carolina.

The importance of the El Paso/Juárez plaza as a principal drug smuggling area will fuel the struggle for control among DTOs over this trafficking corridor. Struggles over the El Paso/Juárez plaza have led to increased violence in Ciudad Juárez, which could increasingly spill over to the U.S. side of the border. Although violence in El Paso and Ciudad Juárez has not risen to levels found in other areas along the U.S.-Mexico border, such as Nuevo Laredo and Tijuana, Mexico, the same organizations that have caused intense conflicts over smuggling in these border areas also operate in the El Paso/Juárez plaza.

As the United States increases security measures along the Southwest Border to curb drug and alien smuggling, more violence may occur in the region.¹⁴ DTOs have become more violent and aggressive in recent years toward law enforcement personnel who could compromise their smuggling operations. As more manpower is placed along the Southwest Border, law enforcement personnel will increasingly be confronted by smugglers who will use violent means to get their drug shipments into the United States. It is likely that border incursions reported over the past year in West Texas, as well as other violent acts toward law enforcement personnel, could increase as security measures are implemented and expanded.

La Entrada al Pacifico has the potential to become a primary smuggling route for the flow of illicit drugs from Mexico into the United States in the long term. Planned upgrades to Port Topolobampo and scheduled road construction in Copper Canyon will most likely result in increased trafficking through the Presidio POE, including the smuggling of cocaine and heroin from South America as well as bulk ephedrine and pseudoephedrine from Asia that enters and transits Mexico.

End Note

14. Federal and state governments have recently begun numerous initiatives to secure the U.S.-Mexico border. The federal government has launched the Secure Border Initiative, a comprehensive multiyear plan to secure the borders of the United States, which includes plans for more agents to patrol the border, secure ports of entry (POEs), and enforce immigration laws. The federal government has also placed National Guard troops at the Southwest Border under Operation Jump Start. Under this operation, National Guard troops are assisting U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) with logistical and administrative support, operation of detection systems, augmentation of border-related intelligence analysis, and installation of a border security infrastructure. Additionally, the state of Texas, in partnership with the federal government, recently launched Operation Rio Grande to increase border security. Under Operation Rio Grande, Texas has conducted targeted, short-duration, high-intensity regional operations that integrate local, state, and federal agencies.

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