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Central Valley High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area Drug Market Analysis
June 2007

Outlook

The CVC HIDTA region's role as a regional- and national-level distribution center for drugs produced in the area (ice methamphetamine and high-potency marijuana) and drugs smuggled into the area from Mexico by Mexican DTOs (ice methamphetamine, marijuana, cocaine, and black tar heroin) will persist as a result of entrenched drug trafficking operations conducted by DTOs and criminal groups in the area.

In the near term--6 to 12 months--the CVC HIDTA region will realize an overall increase in the production and distribution of locally produced high-potency marijuana. The increase will be fueled by two factors: the increase in Mexican DTO outdoor cultivation of high-potency marijuana and local marijuana producers who are increasingly moving operations indoors to avoid intensified outdoor eradication efforts and gain higher profits through year-round production of high-potency marijuana.

Violent incidents by outdoor cannabis growers against law enforcement and the presence of weapons at outdoor grow sites most likely will increase over the next year as law enforcement pressure on outdoor cannabis cultivation increases.

Wide availability and distribution of ice methamphetamine in the CVC HIDTA region will quite likely result in a continued increase in methamphetamine-related treatment admissions and property crime, particularly identity theft.


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