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California Border Alliance Group Drug Market Analysis
June 2007


Mexican DTOs will increasingly use the CBAG region to smuggle illicit drugs into the country. Heightened security measures along other areas of the U.S.-Mexico border where territorial violence is occurring will cause DTOs to expand their smuggling operations in the CBAG region in an attempt to circumvent law enforcement efforts.

Cross-border violence may escalate as Mexican DTOs battle for control over drug smuggling in the area. Additionally, intensifying border violence will quite likely extend inward into the region, endangering both law enforcement personnel and citizens. The involvement of U.S.-based groups, including violent prison and street gangs, in the disputes will quite likely lead to an expansion of these violent confrontations into the CBAG region.

Local cannabis cultivation will most likely increase as the growing demand for high-potency marijuana continues in the CBAG region. Remote and fertile public lands in the region will provide Mexico-based marijuana producers with the opportunity to cultivate cannabis, including higher-potency strains, cost effectively with little or no risk of law enforcement detection. Additionally, an increasing amount of indoor cultivation may occur in response to the demand for higher-potency marijuana in the region and elsewhere.

The number and use of subterranean tunnels will increase. The exceedingly sophisticated nature of these tunnels has made law enforcement detection difficult. These tunnels will pose a more serious national security threat to the United States by providing more avenues by which terrorists or weapons may be surreptitiously transported into the country. Mexican DTOs will search for even more innovative methods to transport illicit drugs and drug proceeds across the California-Mexico border.

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