|
GOVERNMENT EXHIBIT P2290
Please see the important disclosures at the end of this report.
MorganStanley
Equity
Research
North America |
|
United States of America
Enterprise Software |
|
PeopleSoft
Reuters: PSFT.O Bloomberg: PSFT NASDAQ: PSFT
|
Charles E. Phillips
+ 1 (1)212 761 4450
Charles.Phillips@morganstanley.com
Evan Bloomberg
+1 (1)212 761 3659
Evan.Bloomberg@morganstanley.com |
|
| Change in Earnings Forecast |
|
April 26,2002
|
| STOCK
RATING EQUAL-WEIGHT-V |
Price (April 26, 2002) $21.89
Price Target NA
52-Week Range $51 - 15.78 |
| Stock ratings are relative to the analysis industry
(or industry team's) coverage universe |
| MSCI SECTOR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY |
US Strategist Weight 14%
S&P 500 Weight " 15% |
| |
| WHAT'S CHANGED |
Earnings (2002) $0.68 to $0.56
Earnings (2003) $0.78 to $0.68 |
|
|
At the Ready for
a Tough Journey Ahead
- Guidance Lowered; Less Detail
The company gave similar guidance as Siebel, which is flat sequentially
with the possibility of better or worse results depending on the
economy, and no guidance for the second half of the year.
- Still Good Relative Performance
The year over year decline of 13% in license revenue was still
better than most of its competitors including Siebel, Oracle,
and JD Edwards and roughly in line with SAP's decline.
- Near Term Outlook
We expect the stock to trade between a 29-3 lx multiple off consensus
estimates for next year which we expect to fall in the $0.65 to
$0.75 range. Those numbers suggest a trading range of $19 to $23
in the near term.
- Industry view is In-Line
Our thesis of an improving macroeconomic environment leading
to an eventual upturn in capital spending results in our In-Line
view of the Enterprise Software industry. We believe the worst
is over, as 2002 should be a year of gradual and modest improvement,
with further improvement in 2003, but overall tech spending should
lag the pace of the recovery because of the lingering effects
of over buying in the past.
|
|
Stock Price Performance

|
|
| FY ending Dec 31: |
2001A |
2002 E |
2003 E |
2004E |
| EPS ($) |
0.58 |
0.56 |
0.68 |
|
| Prior EPS Ests. ($) |
_ |
0.68 |
0.78 |
_ |
| Revenue($ m) |
2,119 |
1.924 |
2.114 |
- |
| P/E |
37.7 |
39.1 |
32.2 |
_ |
| Price/Revenue |
34 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
|
| Market Cap ($ m) |
7.133 |
| Q'rtly EPS |
2001A actual |
2002E curr prior |
2003E curt prior |
| Q1 |
0.11 |
0.14A |
0 15 0.16 |
| Q2 |
0.14 |
0 13E 0.16E |
0 15 0.18 |
| Q3 |
0 15 |
0.13E 0.19E |
0 17 0.21 |
| CM |
0.18 |
0.16E 0.19E |
0.21 0.23 |
|
| L-T EPS Grth ('yy- 'yy) (%) |
20.0 |
| P/E to Growth |
1 95 |
| Shares Outstanding (m) |
325.9 |
|
|
Company Description
PeopleSoft designs, develops, markets, and supports a family
of enterprise internet application software products for use in
organizations worldwide, higher education institutions, and federal,
state, provincial, and government agencies.
|
|
E - Morgan Stanley Research Estimate
|
MS 00912
At the Ready for a Tough Journey Ahead
|
Summary and Investment Conclusion
PeopleSoft reported its final earnings results on April 25, 2002
after preannouncing earlier in the month. The quarterly results
were in-line with the pre-announcement but below our original
revenue forecast. Earnings were in line with consensus as the
company managed to rein in spending to offset the top line weakness
Guidance Lowered; Less Detail
The company gave similar guidance as Siebel, which is flat
sequentially with the possibility of better or worse results depending
on the economy, and no guidance for the second half of the year.
Given the uncertainty about the spending environment and the unpredictability
of close rates, PeopleSoft as well as many other companies are
choosing to get out of the forecasting business. We can sympathize
with the difficulty of forecasting a volatile industry in a volatile
macro environment and didn't expect much detailed guidance. The
company's Q2 guidance assumes the abnormally low close rates of
Ql continue.
The slock will likely weaken in the near term and then we'll
quickly be back to a macro call on the economy and IT spending.
By our estimates, companies only spent 11% of their 2002 IT budget
budgets in Ql. The sluggish start to the year could be just that
as companies recover from a tumultuous year in 2001. After stepping
on the brakes all last year, ClOs were unlikely to jam on the
accelerator right out of the gate in Ql.
PeopleSoft's performance should be viewed in context with the
rest of the group. The year over year decline of 13% in license
revenue was still better than most of its competitors including
Siebel, Oracle, and JD Edwards and roughly in line with SAP's
decline. The company isn't as good as Siebel is painting a good
picture on its performance, no matter what's reported, but the
absolute growth rates speak for themselves. Siebel did better
on a sequential basis in Ql but that's partly because last year
was so much worse for Siebel and it rolled over a third of the
quarter in the form of backlog from Q4.
PeopleSoft's balance sheet remains strong with DSO of 58 days
and $ 1.8 billion in cash. The company was solidly profitable
and generated cash from operations.
|
|
But PeopleSoft's exceptional performance in 2001 makes for tough
comparisons this year, although to be fair comparisons weren't
easy last year either.
Quick View of the Quarter
- Total revenues of $483.3 million versus our original estimate
of $503.4 million and our most recent estimate of $480 million,
a 9% decrease sequentially and 4% decrease Y/Y.
- License revenues of $133.3 million, versus our original estimate
of $ 160 million and our most recent estimate of $130 million
-- a sequential decrease of 23% and a 13% decrease Y/Y.
- Services revenue was $25.5 million -- a sequential increase
of 2% and a 7% increase Y/Y.
- DSO was 58 versus 64 days last quarter.
- Deferred revenue on the balance sheet was $421 million, up
from $409 million from the previous quarter.
- The company added 78 new customers for the quarter and had
25 deals over $ 1 million, with one deal in the $10 million
to $20 million range.
- Revenue from new customers was weaker than previous quarters
at 25%, and was a significant contributor to the shortfall.
- Average deal size was $600,000, compared to $700,000 in 4Q01.
- International and North America grew at the same rate this
quarter.
|
MS 00913
|
Key Highlights
How Does It Change Our View?
- Rating: Reiterate our Equal-weight- V rating.
- Lowering Estimates: In 2002, we are lowering our
total revenue and earnings estimates from $2,076 million and
$0.68 to $1,924 million and $0.56, respectively. In
2003, were are lowering our total revenue and earnings estimates
from $2,374 million and $0.78 to $2,114 million and $0.68, respectively.
Catalysts
- An improvement in predictability of close rates, and
then actual close rates are key catalyst for the stock.
What Looked Good
- Relative Performance: Despite the fact that the
company came in below expectations, the license revenue growth
was still belter than many of the largest enterprise software
companies such as Oracle, Siebel, JD Edwards, and i2.
- Upgrade Cycle Not the Issue In the Quarter: The
weakness in the quarter was derived from a lower than expected
license revenue figure from new customers, while license revenue
from existing customers tracked to plan.
Red Flags in the Quarter
- License Revenue Below Initial Expectations: The
company reported license revenue that was $32 million below
analyst's original estimates.
- Close Rates and ASP were Down: Sequentially, close
rates were down this quarter. Going into 2Q02, close rate predictability
remains low. Average deal size in the quarter came down from
$700,000 to $600,000.
What Was Reported
- License Revenue: $133 versus our estimate of $130
million and the preannounced result of $130 million to $135
million.
- EPS: $0.14, which was in-line with our initial
estimate and the preannounced estimate.
|
|
Outlook
We expect the shares to trade at around a 40% discount to
Siebel as it has for the last couple of years. That would suggest
a 29-3 1x multiple off consensus estimates for next year which
we expect to fall in the $0.65 to $0.75 range. Those numbers suggest
a trading range of $19 to $23 in the near term.
However, we believe PeopleSoft's competitive position still
remains quite solid. The upgrade cycle remained intact since
it was sales to new customers starting new projects that fell
off in the quarter. New customers fell to 25% of revenue from
39% last quarter. That's consistent with a Ql hesitation in the
market since new projects tend to get more scrutinized more closely
than upgrades and extensions of existing infrastructure. Support
for version PeopleSoft 7.5 will end in 12 months at which point
PeopleSoft customers will need to either upgrade to PeopleSoft
8 or remain on PeopleSoft 7.5 without support. Consequently we
expect the upgrade cycle to continue and new customers will come
back when the economy strengthens.
Stepping back a bit, the back-office applications market for
global companies is dominated by an oligopoly comprised of SAP,
PeopleSoft, and Oracle. The market is down to three viable suppliers
who will help re-automate the back-office business processes for
global enterprises for years to come. These are critical functions
and while most companies have begun implementing these products,
few have completely rolled out a suite across all locations and
countries on the latest version of the technology. At some point
the pressure to open up the back-office to customers and supplier
for machine to machine communications via web services will encourage
more companies to modernize their back-office infrastructure most
consistently. PeopleSoft had made it into an elite club of critical
enterprise software suppliers - those with thousands of customers
relying on the company for mission critical functions.
We're watching corporate profits outside of the technology
and telecom sectors as a catalyst and we see saw some encouraging
signs in Ql. Two thirds of the non-technology companies reporting
in Q1 met or beat estimates. But the data is preliminary and the
turnaround still fragile. But the prospect of improved corporate
earnings logically leads to a possibility of improved technology
spending later this year.
|
MS 00914
| Exhibit 1 |
|
PeopleSoft First Quarter 2002 Financial Results
|
| $Million (EPSS) |
MS 1Q02
Estimate
|
1Q02
Actual
|
4Q01
Actual
|
1Q01
Actual
|
|
|
|
|
|
| % Growth (Y/Y) |
4.4%
|
-13.0%
|
5.8%
|
69.9%
|
| % Growth (Q/Q) |
-8.1%
|
-23.4%
|
14.7%
|
-6.8%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| % Growth (Y/Y) |
51%
|
7.3%
|
11.6%
|
21.8%
|
| % Growth (Q/Q) |
0.0%
|
2.1%
|
0.6%
|
6.2%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| % Growth (Y/Y) |
0.1%
|
-3.9%
|
6.1%
|
34.0%
|
| % Growth (Q/Q) |
-4.7%
|
-8.5%
|
3.7%
|
1.1%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| Operating Margin |
13.1%
|
13.1%
|
15.2%
|
9.2%
|
| Tax Rate |
34.5%
|
34.5%
|
34.5%
|
34.5%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| Shares Outstanding |
326
|
326
|
323
|
315
|
| DSO |
-
|
58
|
64
|
77
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Source: Company data. Morgan Stanley Equity Research estimates
Estimates are based on our figures prior to the company's preannouncement.
|
Company Guidance
The company described the IT spending environment as very cautious
and made the caveat that predicting future financial results is
very difficult in this environment. As a result, the company expects
demand in the information technology market to be flat next quarter.
Management did highlight the potential for a pickup in demand
during the 2H02. The current assumption on close rates is that
they will remain flat at current levels, which were down in 1Q02.
This guidance implies flat license revenue and flat earnings per
share in 2Q02 of $133 million and $0.14, respectively.
The company will also have a non-recurring write off in 2Q02
of $ 10 million for in process research and development as a result
of the purchase of Momentum. In addition, the purchase price of
Momentum, less $10 million will be allocated to capitalize software
and amortized over five years.
|
|
Income Statement Summary
Earnings per share were in-line with expectations. The company
reported $0.14, which compares to our estimate of $0.14 and preannounced
estimate of $0.14.
Revenue for the quarter on an absolute basis was $483.3 million,
year over year growth was -4% and sequential revenue growth was
-9%. License revenue for the quarter on an absolute basis was
$133.3 million, year over year growth was -13% and sequential
revenue growth was -23%. Services revenue for the quarter on an
absolute basis was $342 4 million, year over year growth was 7%
and sequential revenue growth was 2%. The company did reclassify
out of pocket expenses in accordance with FASB.
Operating margins for the quarter were 13%, which compares to
15% last quarter and 9% in the year ago period. The company was
able to improve both services margins and general and administrative
expenses in order to manage toward the bottom line result and
hold operating margins at a very respectable 13%.
In 1Q02, service margins were 52% and license margins were 91%.
Service margins were 47% last quarter and 44% in the same period
last year. License margins were 92% last quarter and 89% in the
same period last year. Sales and marketing was 26% of revenue,
which compares to 24% last quarter and 25% in the year-ago period.
Research and
|
MS 00915
| development was 17% of revenue which
compares to 14% last quarter and ]5% in the year ago period (excludes
Development Services Costs). General and administrative expense
was 6% of revenue, which compares to 7% last quarter and 7% in the
year ago period.
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Summary
The company finished the quarter with $1,823 million in total
cash, which compares to $1,673 million last quarter and $1,155
million one year ago. DSO for the company was down sequentially
to 58 days, which compares to 63 days last quarter and 75 days
in the same period one year ago. Deferred revenue was up sequentially
to $421 million, which compares to $409 million last quarter and
$415 million last year. The increase in deferred revenue is largely
a result of strong first quarter maintenance renewals. Cash flow
from operations was $141 million this quarter.
Customer Metrics
PeopleSoft brought in 78 new customers in the quarter, down
from 147 last quarter. New customer license revenue was 25% of
total license revenue, which compares a recent quarterly average
of 39%.
PeopleSoft's ASP was $600,000 this quarter, which compares to
$700,000 last quarter and a historical level of $500,000. There
were 25 deals in the quarter that were greater than $1 million,
which compares to 41 from last quarter. Additionally, PeopleSoft
had one deal in the $10 to
|
|
$20 million range. This deal was a human
capita] management sale, which was global in nature.
Thus far, 1/3 of PeopleSoft customers have upgraded to PeopleSoft
8, the remaining 2/3 have not upgraded. Support for version PeopleSoft
7.5 will end in 12 months at which point PeopleSoft customers
will need to either upgrade to PeopleSoft 8 or remain on PeopleSoft
7.5 without support.
Revenue Segmentation Analysis
By Product-- Across product lines, the company saw consistent
relative performance.
By Geography-- North America and International
license revenue both decreased year over year at comparable rates
of 13%. On a constant currency basis, International was down 8%
year over year.
By Verticals -- One market that performed better
than the bunch was education and government. This was the company's
least impacted sector in the quarter.
Headcount
The company decreased headcount sequentially from 8,436 last quarter
to 8,512 this quarter. The decrease in headcount is attributed
to a decrease in services.
|
MS 00916
| Exhibit 2 |
PeopleSoft
Sales and Earnings Summary |
| ($ Millions Except Per-Share Data) |
2001 |
2002E |
2003E |
|
3/01
|
6/01
|
9/01
|
12/01
|
CY01
|
3/02
|
6/02E
|
9/02E
|
12/02E
|
CY02E
|
3/03E
|
6/03E
|
9/03E
|
12/03E
|
CY03E
|
| North American Revenue |
391 4
|
407.9
|
392.7
|
402.0
|
1594.0
|
367.3
|
355.7
|
359.5
|
384.6
|
1467.1
|
375.7
|
380.3
|
392.9
|
425.6
|
1574.4
|
| International Revenue |
122 7
|
136.6
|
128.1
|
137.6
|
525.0
|
116.0
|
106.3
|
113.5
|
121.4
|
457.2
|
125.2
|
126.8
|
138.0
|
149.5
|
539.6
|
| Total License fees |
1S3 3
|
166.3
|
151.8
|
174.1
|
645.4
|
133.3
|
120.0
|
128.0
|
151.0
|
532.3
|
135.9
|
132.0
|
145.9
|
175.2
|
589.0
|
| y/y % change |
70%
|
51%
|
15%
|
6%
|
30%
|
-13%
|
-28%
|
-16%
|
- 13%
|
- 18%
|
2%
|
10%
|
14%
|
16%
|
11%
|
| seq % Changes |
-7%
|
8%
|
-9%
|
15%
|
-
|
-23%
|
-10%
|
7%
|
18%
|
-
|
-10%
|
-3%
|
11%
|
20%
|
-
|
| Services |
330.2
|
34.9
|
344.8
|
346.9
|
1371.0
|
342.4
|
342.0
|
345.0
|
355.0
|
1364.4
|
365.0
|
375.0
|
385.0
|
400.0
|
1525.0
|
| y/y % change |
22%
|
20%
|
22%
|
12%
|
19%
|
4%
|
-2%
|
0%
|
2%
|
1%
|
7%
|
10%
|
12%
|
13%
|
10%
|
| Development Services |
30.7
|
29.2
|
24.1
|
18.7
|
102.7
|
7.5
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
00
|
7.5
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| y/y % change |
33%
|
-7%
|
-35%
|
-43%
|
-16%
|
-75%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-93%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Total Revenues |
514.2
|
544.5
|
520.7
|
539.7
|
2119.1
|
483.3
|
462.0
|
473.0
|
506.0
|
1924.3
|
500.9
|
507.0
|
530.9
|
575.2
|
2114.0
|
| y/y % change |
34%
|
27%
|
15%
|
6%
|
20%
|
-6%
|
-15%
|
-9%
|
-6%
|
-9%
|
4%
|
10%
|
12*%
|
14%
|
10%
|
| seq % Change |
1%
|
6%
|
-4%
|
4%
|
-
|
-10%
|
-4%
|
2%
|
7%
|
-
|
-7%
|
1%
|
5%
|
8%
|
-
|
| Cost of Licenses |
16.3
|
18.2
|
12.0
|
14.8
|
61.3
|
11.4
|
10.2
|
10.9
|
12.8
|
45.4
|
10.9
|
10.6
|
11.7
|
14.0
|
47.1
|
| Cost of Services |
184.8
|
196.0
|
180.5
|
183.0
|
744.2
|
164.5
|
164.2
|
164.9
|
169.7
|
663.3
|
171.6
|
176.3
|
181.0
|
188.0
|
716.8
|
| Cost of Development Services |
27.9
|
26.5
|
21.8
|
16.9
|
93.1
|
6.8
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
6.8
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| Total Cost of Revenue |
228.9
|
240.7
|
214.4
|
214.7
|
898.6
|
182.7
|
174.4
|
175.8
|
182.5
|
715.4
|
182.4
|
186.8
|
192.6
|
202.0
|
763.9
|
| Salea & Marketing |
126.2
|
137.4
|
126.0
|
130.3
|
513.9
|
124.6
|
119.2
|
120.1
|
125.0
|
483.9
|
125.2
|
125.7
|
129.0
|
138 0
|
518.0
|
| Product Development |
79.0
|
73.8
|
70.9
|
75.2
|
299.0
|
82.3
|
87.6
|
88.5
|
93.6
|
352.2
|
95.2
|
93.6
|
96.6
|
101.6
|
387.4
|
| General & Administrative |
33.9
|
41.7
|
40.9
|
39.1
|
155.6
|
30.2
|
30.0
|
30.0
|
31.0
|
121.2
|
31.0
|
32.0
|
33.0
|
34.0
|
130.0
|
| Other Changes |
-
|
-0.7
|
0.8
|
-
|
0.0
|
2.8
|
10.0
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
20.8
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
16.0
|
| Total Expenses |
239.1
|
246.2
|
238.6
|
244.6
|
968.5
|
239.9
|
247.0
|
242.6
|
253.6
|
983.1
|
255.4
|
255.5
|
262.6
|
277.1
|
1051.4
|
| Operating Income Reported |
46.1
|
57.7
|
6.77
|
80.4
|
252.0
|
60. 6
|
40.7
|
54.6
|
69 9
|
225.8
|
67.1
|
64.1
|
75.7
|
95.3
|
298.7
|
| Operating Margin - Reported |
9.0%
|
10.6%
|
13.0%
|
14.9
|
11.9%
|
12.5%
|
8.8%
|
11.5%
|
13.8%
|
11.7%
|
13.4%
|
13.5%
|
14.7%
|
17.3%
|
14.9%
|
| Operating Income - Normalized |
46.1
|
57.0
|
68.5
|
80.4
|
252.0
|
63.4
|
50.7
|
58.6
|
73.9
|
246. 6
|
67.1
|
68.7
|
79.7
|
99.3
|
314.7
|
| Operating Margin - Normalized |
9.0%
|
10.5
|
13.2%
|
14.9%
|
11.9%
|
13.1%
|
11.0%
|
12.4%
|
14.6%
|
12.6%
|
13.4%
|
13.5%
|
15.0%
|
17.3%
|
14.9%
|
| Other - Reported |
8.9
|
13.1
|
7.8
|
7.8
|
37. 6
|
7.2
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
8.0
|
30.2
|
8.0
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
33.5
|
| Other - Normalized |
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
0.0
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
0.0
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
0.0
|
| Pratax Income - Reported |
55.1
|
70.8
|
75.5
|
88.2
|
289.6
|
67.8
|
48.2
|
62.1
|
77.9
|
256.0
|
71.1
|
73.2
|
84.2
|
103.8
|
332.2
|
| Pretax Income - Normalized |
55.1
|
70.1
|
76.2
|
88.2
|
289.6
|
70.6
|
58.2
|
66.1
|
81.9
|
276.8
|
75.1
|
77.2
|
88.2
|
107.8
|
348.7
|
| Taxes Reported |
19.0
|
23.5
|
25.7
|
30.4
|
98.0
|
23.3
|
16.6
|
21.4
|
26.9
|
88.2
|
24.5
|
25.2
|
29.0
|
35.8
|
114.6
|
| Taxes - Normalized |
19.0
|
24.5
|
26.7
|
30.4
|
100.6
|
24.4
|
16.6
|
21.4
|
26.9
|
89.3
|
24.5
|
25.2
|
29.0
|
35.8
|
114.6
|
| Tax Rate Normalized |
35%
|
35%
|
35%
|
34%
|
35%
|
35%
|
29%
|
32%
|
33%
|
32%
|
33%
|
33%
|
33%
|
33%
|
33%
|
| Net Income - Reported |
36.1
|
47.4
|
50.3
|
57.8
|
191.6
|
44.5
|
31.5
|
40.7
|
51.0
|
167.8
|
46.6
|
47.9
|
55.1
|
68.0
|
217.6
|
| Net Incomes Normalized |
36.1
|
45.6
|
49.6
|
57.8
|
188.9
|
46.3
|
41.5
|
44.7
|
55.0
|
187.5
|
50.6
|
51.9
|
59.1
|
72.0
|
233.6
|
| Basic Avg [Unreadable text] |
290.2
|
296.1
|
302.2
|
303.7
|
298.0
|
308.0
|
311.1
|
314.2
|
317. 3
|
312.6
|
320.5
|
323.7
|
326.9
|
330.2
|
325.3
|
| FD Avg Shrs (mil ) |
315.0
|
318.6
|
322.3
|
323.7
|
319.8
|
325. 9
|
329.1
|
33.24
|
335.7
|
330.8
|
339.1
|
342.5
|
345.9
|
349.4
|
344.2
|
| EPS - Reported - Basic |
0.12
|
0.16
|
0.17
|
0.19
|
0.64
|
0 14
|
0.10
|
0.13
|
0.16
|
0.53
|
0.15
|
0.15
|
0.17
|
0.21
|
0.68
|
| EPS - Reported - FD |
0.11
|
0.15
|
0.16
|
0.18
|
0.60
|
0.14
|
0.10
|
0.12
|
0.15
|
0.51
|
0.14
|
0.14
|
0.16
|
0.19
|
0.63
|
| EPS - Normalized - Basic |
0.12
|
0.15
|
0.16
|
0.19
|
0.62
|
0.15
|
0.13
|
0.14
|
0.17
|
0.59
|
0.16
|
0.16
|
0.18
|
0.22
|
0.72
|
| EPS - Normalized - FD |
0.11
|
0.14
|
0.15
|
0.18
|
0.58
|
0.14
|
0.13
|
0.13
|
0.16
|
0.56
|
0.15
|
0.15
|
0.17
|
0.21
|
0.68
|
| % Change |
175%
|
133%
|
88%
|
38%
|
87%
|
27%
|
-7%
|
-13%
|
-11%
|
-3%
|
7%
|
15%
|
31%
|
37%
|
21%
|
E = Morgan Stanley Equiry Research estimates.
MS 00917
| Exhibits |
| PeopleSoft - Financial Statistics and Ratios |
|
2001 |
2002E |
2003E |
|
3/01
|
6/01
|
9/01
|
12/01
|
CV01
|
3/02
|
6/02E
|
9/02E
|
12/02E
|
CY02E
|
3/03E
|
6/03E
|
9/03E
|
12/03E
|
CYME
|
| Growth
Y/Y% |
| License Fees |
6.99
|
51.4
|
15.4
|
5.8
|
30.1
|
-13.0
|
-27.8
|
-15.7
|
-13.3
|
-17.5
|
2.0
|
10.0
|
14.0
|
16.0
|
10.7
|
| Services |
22.3
|
20.2
|
21.5
|
11.9
|
18.8
|
3.7
|
-2.0
|
0.0
|
2.3
|
1.0
|
6.6
|
9.6
|
11.6
|
12.7
|
10.2
|
| Total revenues |
34.1
|
26.8
|
15.1
|
6.4
|
19.6
|
-6.0
|
-15.2
|
-9.2
|
-6.2
|
-9.2
|
3.6
|
9.7
|
12.2
|
13.7
|
9.9
|
| Cost of Licenses |
55.9
|
132.9
|
41.7
|
21.8
|
57.6
|
-29.7
|
-44.1
|
-9.5
|
-13.3
|
-26.0
|
-4.9
|
3.5
|
7.3
|
9.2
|
3.9
|
| Sales & Marketing |
45.8
|
17.3
|
8.1
|
-1.8
|
14.7
|
-1.3
|
-9.3
|
-4.7
|
-4.1
|
-4.9
|
0.5
|
5.5
|
7.4
|
10.4
|
6.0
|
| Product Development |
-1.1
|
-12 4
|
-7.5
|
-5.6
|
-6.7
|
4.2
|
18.9
|
24.7
|
24.5
|
17.8
|
15.6
|
6.9
|
9.2
|
8.6
|
10. 0
|
| General & Administrative |
32.2
|
75.0
|
40.5
|
32.4
|
43.9
|
-10.7
|
-28.0
|
-26.7
|
-20.7
|
-22.1
|
2.5
|
6.7
|
10.0
|
9.7
|
7.2
|
| Total expenses |
24.5
|
11.9
|
-7.6
|
2.6
|
6.6
|
.04
|
0.3
|
1.7
|
3.7
|
1.5
|
6.4
|
3.5
|
8.3
|
9.6
|
6.9
|
| Operating Profit |
440.2
|
252.7
|
165.8
|
51.3
|
143.2
|
37.4
|
-11.0
|
-14.4
|
-8.1
|
-2.2
|
5.8
|
35.5
|
35.9
|
34.4
|
27.6
|
| %
of Sales |
| License margin |
89.4
|
89.0
|
92.1
|
91.5
|
90.5
|
91.4
|
91.5
|
91.5
|
91.5
|
91.5
|
9.20
|
92.0
|
92.0
|
92.0
|
92.0
|
| Services margin |
44.0
|
13.9
|
47.7
|
47.3
|
45.7
|
52.0
|
52.0
|
52.2
|
52.2
|
52.1
|
53.0
|
53. 0
|
53.0
|
53.0
|
53.0
|
| Sales & Marketing |
24.5
|
24.1
|
24.2
|
24.1
|
24.3
|
25.8
|
25.8
|
25.4
|
24.7
|
25.4
|
25.0
|
24.8
|
24.3
|
24.0
|
24.5
|
| Product Development |
15.4
|
13.6
|
13.6
|
13.9
|
14.1
|
17.0
|
19.0
|
18.7
|
18.5
|
18.3
|
19.0
|
18.5
|
18.2
|
17.7
|
18.3
|
| General & Administrative |
6.6
|
7.7
|
7.9
|
7.2
|
7.3
|
6.3
|
6.5
|
6.3
|
6.1
|
6.3
|
6.2
|
6.3
|
6.2
|
5.9
|
6.1
|
| Total expenses |
46.5
|
45.2
|
45.8
|
45.3
|
45.7
|
49.7
|
53.5
|
51.3
|
50.1
|
51.1
|
51.0
|
50.4
|
49.5
|
48.3
|
49.7
|
| Operating Margin |
9.0
|
10.5
|
13.2
|
14.9
|
11.9
|
13.1
|
11.0
|
12.4
|
14.6
|
12.8
|
13.4
|
13.5
|
15.0
|
17.3
|
14.9
|
| Pretax Margin |
10.7
|
12.9
|
14.5
|
13.7
|
13.7
|
14.6
|
12.6
|
14.0
|
16.2
|
14.4
|
15.0
|
15.2
|
16.6
|
18.7
|
16.5
|
| Net Margin |
7.0
|
8.4
|
9.5
|
10.7
|
8.9
|
9.6
|
9.0
|
9.4
|
10.9
|
9.7
|
10.1
|
10.2
|
11.1
|
12.5
|
11.0
|
| Selected
Ratios and Balance Sheet Highlights |
| Book Value/Shr |
3.45
|
4.13
|
4.44
|
4.93
|
-
|
5.26
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Cash/shr |
3.35
|
3.96
|
4.41
|
5.05
|
-
|
5.46
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Sales/Shr |
6.04
|
6.33
|
6.47
|
6.56
|
-
|
6.41
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Total Cash Investments |
1155
|
1402
|
1515
|
1673
|
-
|
1823
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Total Debt |
57
|
57
|
57
|
57
|
-
|
57
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Total Equity |
1087
|
1315
|
1430
|
1592
|
-
|
1716
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Total Assets |
2024
|
2285
|
2363
|
2548
|
-
|
2667
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Total Receivables |
430
|
402
|
354
|
375
|
-
|
313
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Rec Days Outsi |
75
|
66
|
61
|
63
|
-
|
58
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Employees |
8255
|
8539
|
8631
|
6436
|
-
|
6512
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Revenue Per Employee |
0.23
|
0.24
|
0.24
|
0.25
|
-
|
0.25
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Average Contract Size |
0.500
|
0.600
|
0.700
|
0.700
|
-
|
0.600
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Number of Customers |
4119
|
4249
|
4352
|
4499
|
-
|
4577
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| New customers |
130
|
120
|
103
|
147
|
-
|
78
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Deferred revenue |
415
|
419
|
408
|
409
|
-
|
421
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Deferred Rev/LTM Rev |
22%
|
21%
|
20%
|
19%
|
-
|
20%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Provision for Doubtful Accounts |
9.4
|
4.9
|
1.5
|
0.8
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| Depreciation and Amortization |
19.7
|
23.5
|
30.6
|
29.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
| LTM Sales |
1903
|
2018
|
2087
|
2119
|
-
|
2088
|
2006
|
1958
|
1924
|
-
|
1942
|
1987
|
2045
|
2114
|
-
|
| LTM EPM |
0.38
|
0.46
|
0.53
|
0.58
|
-
|
0.61
|
0.60
|
0.58
|
0.56
|
-
|
0.57
|
0.59
|
0.63
|
0.68
|
-
|
E = Morgan Stanley' Equity Research estimates
MS 00918
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Morgan
Stanley & Co. Incorporated ("Morgan Stanley"). Morgan Stanley has
no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report
change. Morgan Stanley and its affiliate companies are involved in many
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MS 00919
|
The Americas
1585 Broadway
New York, NY 10036-8293
United States
Tel: +1 (1)212 761 4000
|
Europe
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London EI4 4QA
United Kingdom
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Japan
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| INDUSTRY COVERAGE: ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE |
| Company |
Ticker |
Rating as of |
Price at 4/24/02 |
|
Company |
Ticker |
Rating as of |
Price at 4/24/02 |
| Agile Software |
AGIL.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$9.01
|
|
Mercury Interactive |
MERQ.O |
O 3/18/02 |
$36.51
|
| Ariba |
ARBA.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$3.48
|
|
Network Associates |
NET.N |
NR 3/18/02 |
$23.75
|
| Aspect Communications |
ASPT.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$4.79
|
|
Novell |
NOVL.O |
U 3/18/02 |
$3.70
|
| BEA Systems |
BEAS.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$10.42
|
|
Oracle |
ORCL.O |
O 3/18/02 |
$10.50
|
| BMC Software |
BMC.N |
E 3/18/02 |
$14.64
|
|
PeopleSoft |
PSFT.O |
E 4/2/02 |
$22.48
|
| Business Objects |
BOBJ.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$35.11
|
|
Peregrine Systems |
PRGN.O |
O 3/18/02 |
$8.31
|
| Check Point Software |
CHKP.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$18.25
|
|
Quest Software Inc |
QSFT.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$12.70
|
| Click Commerce |
CKCM.O |
E 3/18//02 |
$1.05
|
|
Rational Software Corp |
. RATL.O |
E 4/19/02 |
$14.10
|
| Cognos Inc |
COGN.O |
O 3/18/02 |
$24.51
|
|
SAP |
SAP.N |
O 3/18/02 |
$33.35
|
| Computer Associates |
CA.N |
O 3/18/02 |
$18.44
|
|
SeeBeyond |
SBYN.O |
E 4/23/02 |
$3.22
|
| Compuware |
CPWR.O |
U 3/22/02 |
$8.08
|
|
Siebel Systems |
SEBL.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$23.76
|
| Documentum |
DCTM.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$19.29
|
|
SilverStream Software |
SSSW.O |
U 3/18/02 |
$4.90
|
| E.piphany |
EPNY.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$5.65
|
|
TeleTech |
TTEC.O |
O 3/18/02 |
$12.27
|
| Hyperion Solutions |
HYSL.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$24.46
|
|
TIBCO Software |
TIBX.O |
£ 3/18/02 |
$9.05
|
| \2 Technologies |
ITWO.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$3.28
|
|
Veritas Software |
VRTS.O |
O 3/18/02 |
$26.85
|
| Informatica |
INFA.O |
O 3/18/02 |
$8.50
|
|
Vignette |
VIGN.O |
U 3/18/02 |
$3.02
|
| J.D Edwards |
JDEC.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$11.99
|
|
webMethods |
WEBM.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$14.27
|
| KANA Software |
KANA.O |
E 3/18/02 |
$11.45
|
|
Stock ratings are subject tochange
Please see |
| Manugistics Group Inc. |
MANU.O |
O 3/18/02 |
$16.21
|
|
|
|
|
|
| McAfee.com |
MCAF.O |
NR 3/18/02 |
$18.54
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ANALYST STOCK RATINGS |
|
Overweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed
the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry
team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the
next 12-18 months.
Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be
in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry
(or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis,
over the next 12-!8 months
Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below
the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry
team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the
next 12-18 months.
More volatile (V). We estimate that this stock has more than
a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than 25% in
a month, based on a quantitative assessment of historical data,
or in the analyst's view, it is likely to become materially more
volatile over the next l-!2 months compared with the past three
years. Stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically
rated as more volatile (unless otherwise noted). We note that
securities that we do not currently consider "more volatile" can
still perform in that manner.
|
| ANALYST INDUSTRY VIEWS |
|
Attractive (A). The analyst expects the performance of his or
her industry coverage universe to be attractive vs. the relevant
broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months
In-Line (I). The analyst expects the performance of his or her
industry coverage universe to be in line with the relevant broad
market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.
Cautious (C) The analyst views the performance of his or her
industry coverage universe with caution vs. the relevant broad
market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.
|
MS 00920
|