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National
Drug Intelligence Center
National Drug Threat Assessment 2005
Summary Report
February 2005
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Rates of use for cocaine among adolescents have declined
since the late 1990s and likely will decline further in the near term; however, rates of use remain
higher than in the early to mid-1990s--a situation that continues to concern policymakers and
drug treatment providers. According to MTF, rates of past year use for cocaine among
adolescents appear to have peaked between 1998 and 1999 and have since declined among eighth,
tenth, and twelfth graders. MTF data show that rates of past year use for cocaine declined
from 3.1 percent in 1998 to 2.0 percent in 2004 among eighth graders, from 4.9 percent in 1999
to 3.7 percent in 2004 among tenth graders, and from 6.2 percent in 1999 to 5.3 percent in
2004 among twelfth graders. Despite these declines, past year rates of use are still higher
than were rates of use in 1992 among eighth (1.5%), tenth (1.9%), and twelfth (3.1%) graders.
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Projections in the rates of cocaine use among adults are
less certain because of limited data that show somewhat mixed trends. For example, MTF and NSDUH data show
that rates of use for powder cocaine have trended slightly upward among adults since
2002 but were mixed for crack cocaine. Nevertheless, MTF data indicate that rates of
past year cocaine use among young adults and college students are higher than they were in
the early 1990s--just as they are for adolescents. For example, rates of past year use for
cocaine among young adults and college students in 2003 were 6.6 percent and 5.4 percent,
respectively, compared with only 5.7 percent and 3.0 percent in 1992. That the rates of past year
use for cocaine remain relatively high is a concern to policymakers and public health officials.
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Continued success in reducing worldwide cocaine production
combined with continued success in record-level cocaine interdiction in transit zones may result
in worldwide reductions in the availability of the drug in the near term.
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The expansion of domestic methamphetamine laboratories into
eastern states combined with increased foreign production of methamphetamine should raise
availability levels in domestic markets overall, exposing an increasing number of potential new
users to the drug. Increased exposure of the drug to potential new users may lead to a sharp
increase in rates of use in drug markets, particularly in the Northeast and Southeast Regions,
where methamphetamine availability and use previously have been limited.
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Methamphetamine availability, production, and distribution
have increased in the Northeast Region since 2002, a situation likely to continue in the near
term. These increases are likely to create significant strain on many law enforcement and public
health resources, particularly in rural areas, where methamphetamine use typically is higher and
resources often are more limited.
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The production and distribution of ice methamphetamine by
Mexican criminal groups are likely to continue to increase, given the higher profit margins for ice
and the recent successes of Mexican criminal groups in significantly expanding distribution of the
drug in many large methamphetamine markets. Such increases may lead to increased rates of addiction
to methamphetamine because ice is a higher purity, more addictive form of the drug.
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Marijuana production within the United States is likely to
increase as U.S.-based Mexican criminal groups continue to establish or expand large-scale
domestic cultivation operations. Expansion of such operations, particularly on public lands, also
may increase the threat of violence against unsuspecting passersby and may result in an overall
increase in availability of the drug.
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An increased supply of marijuana likely will result in
increased exposure to the drug and, consequently, more new users, since initiates to drug use are more likely to
start with a drug that is readily available and easily obtainable, such as marijuana.
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The demand for heroin, currently stabilized, will remain
lower than the demand for other major drugs of abuse such as cocaine, marijuana, and methamphetamine.
An overall high perception of risk associated with heroin use is an indication that rates
of heroin use, particularly among adolescents and young adults, will remain stable.
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The 73.3 percent increase in potential worldwide heroin
production from 2002 to 2003, though cause for concern, will not likely result in a significant
increase in heroin availability in U.S. drug markets. The significant increases in potential worldwide
opium and heroin production estimates for 2002 and 2003 are attributable overwhelmingly to
increases in production in Afghanistan. However, only a small amount of Southwest Asian
heroin is transported to the United States for subsequent distribution. Therefore, despite
the increase in worldwide heroin production, the need for policymakers and law enforcement
officials to shift resources away from other drug threats to counter a rise in domestic heroin
availability is very unlikely.
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Demand data indicate that the perception of risk associated
with MDMA use is increasing only among adolescents, suggesting that while MDMA use might continue
to decline among adolescents, it may remain at higher levels for adults.
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MDMA transportation across the Northern Border may increase,
given an apparent shift in transportation routes and increasing production in Canada since
the late 1990s.
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