National Drug Intelligence Center   National Drug Threat Assessment 2009   December 2008

National Drug Threat Summary

The trafficking and abuse of illicit drugs inflict tremendous harm upon individuals, families, and communities throughout the country. The violence, intimidation, theft, and financial crimes carried out by drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), criminal groups, gangs, and drug users in the United States pose a significant threat to our nation. The cost to society from drug production, trafficking, and abuse is difficult to fully measure or convey; however, the most recent data available are helpful in framing the extent of the threat. For example:

• More than 35 million individuals used illicit drugs or abused prescription drugs in 2007.
   
• In 2006 individuals entered public drug treatment facilities more than 1 million times seeking assistance in ending their addiction to illicit or prescription drugs.
   
• More than 1,100 children were injured at, killed at, or removed from methamphetamine laboratory sites from 2007 through September 2008.
   
• For 2009 the federal government has allocated more than $14 billion for drug treatment and prevention, counterdrug law enforcement, drug interdiction, and international counterdrug assistance.
   
• In September 2008 there were nearly 100,000 inmates in federal prisons convicted and sentenced for drug offenses, representing more than 52 percent of all federal prisoners.
   
• In 2007 more than 1.8 million drug-related arrests in the United States were carried out by federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies.
   
• Mexican and Colombian DTOs generate, remove, and launder between $18 billion and $39 billion in wholesale drug proceeds annually.
   
• Diversion of controlled prescription drugs costs insurance companies up to $72.5 billion annually, nearly two-thirds of which is paid by public insurers.

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DTOs rapidly adapt to law enforcement and policy initiatives that disrupt their drug trafficking operations. Law enforcement and intelligence reporting revealed several strategic shifts by DTOs in drug production and trafficking in 2007 and early 2008, attributed in part to the success of counterdrug agencies in disrupting the operations of DTOs. Many of these shifts represent immediate new challenges for policymakers and resource planners. The National Drug Threat Assessment 2009 outlines the progress and emerging counterdrug challenges in detailed strategic findings, including the following:

• Mexican DTOs represent the greatest organized crime threat to the United States. The influence of Mexican DTOs over domestic drug trafficking is unrivaled. In fact, intelligence estimates indicate a vast majority of the cocaine available in U.S. drug markets is smuggled by Mexican DTOs across the U.S.-Mexico border. Mexican DTOs control drug distribution in most U.S. cities, and they are gaining strength in markets that they do not yet control.
   
• Violent urban gangs control most retail-level drug distribution nationally, and some have relocated from inner cities to suburban and rural areas. Moreover, gangs are increasing their involvement in wholesale-level drug distribution, aided by their connections with Mexican and Asian DTOs.
   
• Cocaine is the leading drug threat¹ to society. Methamphetamine is the second leading drug threat, followed by marijuana, heroin, pharmaceutical drugs, and MDMA (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine, also known as ecstasy) respectively.
   
• Cocaine availability levels in the United States are lower than 2005 and 2006 levels. Domestic cocaine availability decreased in early 2007, resulting in sustained cocaine shortages in 38 large and midsize domestic drug markets by August 2007. Coca eradication, large cocaine seizures, increased pressure on DTOs in Mexico, intercartel violence, expanded cocaine markets in Europe, and U.S. border security all contributed to the cocaine shortages. By early 2008 cocaine availability had returned to 2005 and 2006 levels in some cities, but decreased availability continued in 14 U.S. drug markets, primarily in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast Regions.
   
• Domestic methamphetamine production is projected to surpass 2007 levels. Methamphetamine laboratory seizure data show that methamphetamine production in the United States decreased each year from 2003 through 2007. However, many users and distributors have been compelled to begin producing the drug domestically again because of decreased flow of methamphetamine from Mexico. Methamphetamine production in Mexico declined significantly in 2007, resulting in decreased methamphetamine availability in many U.S. drug markets.
   
• To increase domestic methamphetamine production, individuals and criminal groups are increasingly circumventing state and federal pseudoephedrine and ephedrine sales restrictions. Individuals and criminal groups are making numerous small-quantity pseudoephedrine and ephedrine product purchases from multiple retail outlets, a diversion method known as "smurfing." In some instances, pseudoephedrine brokers have established pseudoephedrine smurfing networks by paying several individuals to make purchases on their behalf.
   
• The level of domestic outdoor cannabis cultivation is very high and possibly increasing. Domestic outdoor cannabis eradication data show that the number of cannabis plants eradicated increased 120 percent (2,996,225 to 6,599,599 plants) from 2004 through 2007, particularly eradication of plots established by Mexican DTOs on public lands.
   
• Marijuana potency has increased to the highest level ever recorded. The increase in marijuana potency has been fueled by increased indoor cultivation of high-potency marijuana and improvements in outdoor cultivation techniques. Much of the increased cultivation of high-potency marijuana is attributed to Asian DTOs that have increased indoor operations in many states. Many of these Asian DTOs are linked in a nationwide network.
   
• Lucrative northeastern white heroin markets are attracting Mexican DTOs that distribute Mexican black tar or brown powder heroin. Mexican DTOs have increased Mexican heroin availability in these traditionally white heroin markets, and they have gained market share among the heroin-user population. Mexican heroin distributors have been able to extend distribution farther into northeastern heroin markets because of rising heroin production in Mexico and decreasing heroin production in Colombia.
   
• Southwest and Southeast Asian heroin availability and distribution are limited. However, some Nigerian criminal groups distributing Southwest Asian heroin are attempting to increase heroin distribution in some drug markets where Southwest Asian heroin had not been available previously.
   
• The level of prescription drug abuse is very high, and individuals are able to acquire these drugs from numerous sources. Individuals usually acquire Schedule II prescription drugs (OxyContin and Percocet) through traditional diversion methods such as prescription fraud and doctor-shopping. However, Schedule III (Vicodin) and IV (Xanax and Valium) prescription drugs are often acquired in large quantities through the Internet. Law enforcement reporting also indicates that prescription drug distribution by gangs has increased since 2004.
   
• Asian DTOs are producing MDMA in large clandestine laboratories in Canada. In fact, the high and possibly increasing level of MDMA production in Canada is contributing to increased distribution of the drug in U.S. drug markets. Moreover, distribution of MDMA tablets that have been adulterated with highly addictive drugs, particularly methamphetamine, is increasing.

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DTOs, gangs, and drug users continually adapt to changes in drug policy, counterdrug initiatives, and numerous other factors that affect their operations. Although forecasting strategic drug trends is difficult because of significant intelligence gaps, the National Drug Threat Assessment 2009 presents several predictive estimates regarding drug trafficking and abuse, including the following:

• Sporadic cocaine shortages will most likely continue in several U.S. drug markets in 2009. The sustained pressure against DTOs in Mexico as well as high cocaine seizure totals from shipments in transit toward the United States continued through mid-2008 and will most likely result in supply interruptions and wholesale shortages in some U.S. drug markets through early 2009.
   
• Domestic methamphetamine production will most likely increase moderately in 2009. The decreased flow of methamphetamine from Mexico, the relocation of some Mexican methamphetamine producers from Mexico to California, and the emergence of large-scale ephedrine and pseudoephedrine smurfing operations throughout the country have created conditions conducive to a moderate increase in domestic methamphetamine production.
   
• Asian DTOs will very likely expand their domestic indoor cannabis cultivation operations beyond traditional operating areas in the Pacific Northwest and, to a lesser extent, New England. Asian DTOs expanded their indoor cannabis cultivation operations in 2007 to new areas, including Cleveland, Denver, Houston, and Los Angeles. Expansion of indoor cannabis cultivation operations will most likely continue in 2009.
   
• Southwest Asian heroin availability may increase in some U.S. cities that were not previously considered Southwest Asian heroin markets. West African couriers have been arrested with significant amounts of heroin in U.S. cities after having departed from countries commonly used to transship Southwest Asian heroin, such as Nigeria. Some of the cities in which these couriers were apprehended are those where the availability of Southwest Asian heroin has been low or nonexistent, such as Raleigh, North Carolina.
   
• Mexican DTOs will most likely continue to establish new markets for Mexican heroin in northeastern states. Recent encroachments by Mexican heroin distributors into more northeastern drug markets most likely indicate a determination on the part of Mexican DTOs to expand Mexican heroin distribution in new market areas.
   
• The Ryan Haight Online Pharmacy Consumer Protection Act of 2008 was enacted in October 2008 and will most likely reduce the number of rogue Internet pharmacies selling controlled prescription drugs. The federal law amends the Controlled Substances Act and prohibits the delivery, distribution, or dispensing of controlled prescription drugs over the Internet without a prescription written by a doctor who has conducted at least one in-person examination of the patient.
   
• Treatment admissions for MDMA addiction may increase. Treatment admissions for MDMA addiction may increase as the distribution of MDMA tablets adulterated with highly addictive substances, such as methamphetamine, increases.

End Note

1. The relative threat posed by a specific drug requires a subjective analytic assessment based on many considerations, such as the cost of interdiction, seizure, and eradication; the number of individuals using or addicted to the drug; the level of availability in U.S. drug markets; the extent and organization of distribution groups; the level of violence associated with distribution and use of the drug; the level of property crime associated with use of the drug; and the level of involvement by international drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) and gangs.

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