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National Drug Intelligence Center |
Preliminary 2008 availability and seizure data indicate a strengthening in domestic methamphetamine availability and domestic methamphetamine production, and an increase in the flow of methamphetamine into the United States from Mexico--most likely attributable to the efforts of methamphetamine producers in both countries to reestablish the methamphetamine supply chain in the face of disruptions and shortages that began occurring in early 2007. Throughout 2007 methamphetamine availability decreased in U.S. drug markets, causing instability in the methamphetamine supply chain. Prior to 2007, U.S. drug markets relied on the strong flow of methamphetamine produced in Mexico, a supply system established in 2005 and strengthened in 2006. However, ephedrine and pseudoephedrine restrictions in Mexico resulted in a decrease in methamphetamine production in Mexico and reduced the flow of the drug from Mexico to the United States in 2007 and from January through June 2008. In fact, disruptions in methamphetamine supplies reported in some drug markets in the Pacific, Southwest, and West Central Regions during 2007 and early 2008 were most likely attributable to the decrease in methamphetamine production in Mexico during 2007. By mid-2008, in response to decreased availability of methamphetamine in many U.S. drug markets, small-scale methamphetamine producers began circumventing national retail pseudoephedrine sales restrictions to produce the drug in many areas of the United States. At the same time, some Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) shifted their production operations from Mexico to the United States, particularly to California. Moreover, after the enactment of import and sales restrictions on pseudoephedrine in Mexico, Mexican DTOs began adapting their operating procedures in several ways, including smuggling restricted chemicals through new routes, importing nonrestricted chemical derivatives instead of precursor chemicals, using alternative production methods, and diverting precursor chemicals from sources in Southeast Asia and South America.
Ephedrine and pseudoephedrine import restrictions in Mexico contributed to decreased Mexican methamphetamine production in 2007 and early 2008. In 2005 the government of Mexico (GOM) began implementing progressively increasing restrictions on the importation of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine and other chemicals used for methamphetamine production. In fact, in 2007 the GOM announced a prohibition on ephedrine and pseudoephedrine imports into Mexico for 2008 and a ban on the use of both chemicals in Mexico by 2009 (see Figure 1). Pseudoephedrine import restrictions resulted in a significant decrease in methamphetamine production in Mexico in 2007, evidenced by reduced flow of the drug from Mexico into the United States. National Seizure System (NSS) data show a decrease in the amount of methamphetamine seized along the Southwest Border between 2005 (2,904 kilograms) and 2006 (2,809 kilograms); the decrease continued in 2007, when 1,745 kilograms of the drug were seized, a 37.9 percent decrease from 2006 to 2007. However, preliminary 2008 NSS data show an increase in methamphetamine seizures along the Southwest Border. Through October 2008 the amount of methamphetamine seized at and between Southwest Border ports of entry (POEs) reached 2,006 kilograms, surpassing the 2007 total (see Figure 2; see Table B1 in Appendix B).
Figure 1. Commercial Pseudoephedrine Imports to Mexico, in Metric Tons, 2004-2008*
Source: United Nations.
*
Government of Mexico target for commercial pseudoephedrine
imports for 2008.
Figure 2. Methamphetamine Seizure Amounts Along the Southwest Border, in Kilograms, 2004-2008*
Source: National Seizure System.
*
Data run November 14, 2008; fourth quarter 2008
total is incomplete.
In response to the GOM's restrictions on the importation of ephedrine, pseudoephedrine, and other chemicals used for methamphetamine production, Mexican DTOs have altered their chemical diversion and methamphetamine production operations. Since 2006, Mexican DTOs have been importing chemical derivatives and analogues into Mexico to produce precursor chemicals for methamphetamine production and to evade inspection by law enforcement at airports and seaports in Mexico. The importation of chemical derivatives and analogues for the purpose of methamphetamine production is illegal in Mexico; however, such chemicals are frequently smuggled into Mexico by traffickers because inspectors are often unfamiliar with the chemicals and let them pass through POEs. For instance, during 2007 the GOM reported several seizures of large quantities of n-acetyl pseudoephedrine, a chemical used to produce pseudoephedrine. According to GOM reporting, the chemical was intended for use at Mexican methamphetamine production sites.
Limited access to ephedrine and pseudoephedrine has also compelled methamphetamine producers in Mexico to increasingly use alternative methods of production in order to maintain supplies of the drug. According to Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reporting, Mexican DTOs conduct large-scale nonephedrine-based methamphetamine production operations in Mexico, particularly using the phenyl-2-propanone (P2P) method. In fact, the GOM has reported several seizures of phenylacetic acid, a chemical used to produce the methamphetamine precursor chemical P2P. DEA reporting reveals that since 2006, the prevalence of clandestine laboratories in Mexico using nonephedrine-based methods of production has increased. For example, during one week in December 2007, Mexican law enforcement authorities seized two P2P superlabs1 in Jalisco, Mexico. DEA estimates that the laboratories were capable of producing 5,500 pounds and 1,200 pounds of methamphetamine per month, respectively. Increasing use of the P2P method of methamphetamine production in Mexico is a strong indicator of difficulty on the part of some Mexican methamphetamine producers in acquiring ephedrine or pseudoephedrine that would yield a higher-quality drug.
Reduced Mexican methamphetamine production resulted in decreased methamphetamine availability in many U.S. methamphetamine markets in 2007 and, in some markets, during early 2008. Analysis of drug availability data as well as law enforcement reporting reveals that reduced methamphetamine production in Mexico contributed to disruptions in the supply of methamphetamine in many U.S. drug markets beginning in early 2007 and continuing into 2008. Such disruptions during 2007 were evidenced by rising methamphetamine prices and decreasing purity. According to the System to Retrieve Information From Drug Evidence (STRIDE), the price per pure gram for methamphetamine increased 24 percent ($148.91 to $184.09) from January 2007 through September 2008 (see Figure B1 in Appendix B). STRIDE data also show that average methamphetamine purity decreased 18 percent (56.90 to 52.20 percent pure) during the same period. Moreover, Quest Diagnostics data show that the rate of positive methamphetamine results in workplace drug tests declined steadily through 2007 (see Figure B2 in Appendix B) and, like STRIDE data, indicates instability in methamphetamine supply and availability throughout that period. Quest Diagnostics data show a 38.8 percent decrease in the rate of positive methamphetamine workplace drug tests from the first quarter of 2007 (0.18%) to the fourth quarter of 2007 (0.11%). Methamphetamine seizure data also indicate a reduction in the flow of methamphetamine and decreased availability in 2007. NSS data show that the amount of methamphetamine seized in the United States decreased sharply in 2007, particularly during the third quarter of 2007. In fact, the total amount of methamphetamine seized in 2007 (4,889.24 kg) was 35.7 percent lower than in 2006 (7,608.23 kg). However, the total amount of methamphetamine seized in the United States surpassed the 2007 year-end total by September 2008 (5,903.78 kilograms) and reached 6,335.66 kilograms by the end of October 2008 (see Figure 3 and Table B2 in Appendix B).
Figure 3. Methamphetamine Seizure Amounts in the United States, in Kilograms, 2004-2008*
Source: National Seizure System.
*
Data run November 14, 2008; fourth quarter 2008
total is incomplete.
Law enforcement reporting confirms the supply disruption evidenced by methamphetamine availability data. According to law enforcement reporting, methamphetamine supplies in several drug markets were stretched after June 2007, a situation that persists to date in some drug markets. The reported disruptions occurred at the wholesale level, midlevel, and retail level, particularly in 24 cities in the Pacific, West Central, and Southwest Regions, and in the Great Lakes and Southeast Regions (see Table B3 in Appendix B). Law enforcement reporting indicates that distributors had difficulty obtaining the quantities that they had been able to acquire prior to mid-2007. For instance, law enforcement reporting in August 2008 from agencies in the Pacific Region indicates that some wholesale suppliers who could readily access 20 pounds of methamphetamine before mid-2007 were able to access only 10 pounds. Similarly, some wholesale distributors who were supplying 10 pounds prior to mid-2007 were able to supply only 1 to 2 pounds.
In addition to that which they divert from source areas in Southeast Asia, Mexican DTOs are increasingly diverting ephedrine and pseudoephedrine from licit sources in South America. DEA reporting indicates that Mexican DTOs are increasingly using South America as a source and transshipment zone for ephedrine and pseudoephedrine shipments destined for methamphetamine laboratories in Mexico as well as for laboratories tied to Mexican DTOs that are located in South American countries. For instance, the amount of ephedrine imported into Argentina increased from 5 metric tons in 2006 to 26 metric tons in 2007, indicating an increase in such activity in that country. DEA reporting further indicates that Argentine authorities seized an operational methamphetamine laboratory with ties to a Mexican DTO and that methamphetamine previously produced in the laboratory had been transshipped to Mexico for distribution. Seizure data from 2007 and 2008 indicate that ephedrine and pseudoephedrine are smuggled from South American source areas in containerized cargo, aboard commercial flights by couriers, and by mail delivery services.
Methamphetamine availability stabilized and possibly increased after the first half of 2008, quite likely in part because of increasing domestic production of the drug. Methamphetamine availability data reveal that by mid-2008, availability throughout most of the country was beginning to stabilize. STRIDE data show that the price per pure gram for methamphetamine decreased 31 percent ($267.74 to $184.09) from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008 after four consecutive quarters of price increases (see Figure B1 in Appendix B). STRIDE data also show a 28 percent increase (from 40.90 percent to 52.20 percent) in average methamphetamine purity during the same period. Moreover, NSS data suggest rising methamphetamine availability, since methamphetamine seizure amounts for the first half of 2008 significantly outpaced those reported for the first half of 2007 (see Table B2 in Appendix B) and the first half of 2006, the year with the highest methamphetamine seizure amounts ever reported.
Rising methamphetamine availability in the first half of 2008 coincided with indications of rising domestic methamphetamine production. The number of reported methamphetamine laboratory seizures in the United States decreased each year from 2004 through 2007 (see Figure 4); however, preliminary 2008 data and reporting indicate that domestic methamphetamine production is increasing in some areas of the country, and laboratory seizures for 2008 are outpacing seizures for 2007. According to preliminary NSS data for 2008, the number of reported methamphetamine laboratory seizures during the first half of 2008 totaled 1,605, compared with 1,475 laboratories seized during the first half of 2007 (see Table B4 in Appendix B). NSS data show that in several states (including Alabama, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wisconsin), methamphetamine laboratory seizures as of July 2008 had already exceeded or were significantly outpacing seizures reported in 2007. For example, NSS data show that more methamphetamine laboratories were seized in Alabama from January through July 2008 (108 laboratories) than were seized in all of 2007 (81 laboratories). Similarly, in Michigan 112 methamphetamine laboratories were seized from January through July 2008, compared with 101 laboratories seized in all of 2007.
Figure 4. Reported Methamphetamine Laboratory Seizures in the United States, 2004-2008*
Source: National Seizure System.
*
Data run November 14, 2008; fourth quarter 2008
total is incomplete.
Laboratory seizure data also show that the increased number of domestic laboratories seized through October 2008 is attributable primarily to a rise in small-capacity laboratories; however, large-scale methamphetamine production in central California is also increasing. NSS data show that 99 percent (2,570 of 2,584) of seized laboratories were capable of producing less than 1 pound of methamphetamine per production cycle. Nevertheless, reporting from central and southern California law enforcement and intelligence officials indicates that some Mexican DTOs have relocated their methamphetamine production operations to California. The number of superlabs seized in the state through October 2008 (14) exceeded the total number of superlabs seized in all of 2007 (11).
Individuals and criminal groups are increasingly circumventing state and federal pseudoephedrine sales restrictions by making numerous small-quantity pseudoephedrine product purchases from multiple retail outlets. The increase in domestic methamphetamine production has been accomplished largely by individuals and criminal groups that circumvent pseudoephedrine sales restrictions by making numerous small-quantity purchases of products that contain pseudoephedrine for use in laboratory operations. This method of acquiring pseudoephedrine is often referred to as "smurfing" (see text box). Law enforcement reporting from the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Pacific, Southeast, and Southwest Regions indicates an increase in the incidence of individuals and criminal groups organizing pseudoephedrine smurfing operations and selling the precursor chemicals to methamphetamine producers or trading them for the drug (see Table 1). In fact, Central Valley California High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area (HIDTA) reporting indicates that many operators of methamphetamine laboratories seized in their area, including Mexican DTO-operated superlabs, are producing methamphetamine with pseudoephedrine acquired primarily through smurfing operations in central and southern California, particularly San Diego County. For instance, an October 2007 investigation in Fresno County revealed that two individuals had been conducting daily precursor chemical smurfing operations, soliciting homeless individuals to get into their car and ride from store to store to purchase pseudoephedrine products. In exchange, the couple paid each person approximately $30 and sometimes gave the individuals alcohol. Evidence seized from the vehicle used in the operation included packages of pseudoephedrine, pharmacy listings torn from an area telephone directory, and several cellular telephones. Similarly, Fresno Methamphetamine Task Force (FMTF) reporting indicates that officers frequently find evidence of pseudoephedrine smurfing, including bags of pseudoephedrine blister packs and thousands of empty blister packs2 at laboratory dumpsites in their area. During one pseudoephedrine smurfing investigation in Fresno during April 2008, officers recovered a pseudoephedrine products price list, store receipts, pseudoephedrine product packaging, and paper shredders. Officers also discovered bulk quantities of blister packs that had been removed from their paper packaging and placed into plastic shopping bags in 24-gram increments for resale to pseudoephedrine brokers. The recovered price list indicated that each 3.6-gram box of pseudoephedrine-type product was to be sold for no less than $32 to a pseudoephedrine broker or methamphetamine producer; however, law enforcement reporting from the region shows that the price per package of over-the-counter pseudoephedrine can range as high as $60. In fact, according to FMTF, the price per pound of over-the-counter pseudoephedrine in California increased to $7,000 by August 2008, up from approximately $1,500 in 2006.
|
Ephedrine and Pseudoephedrine Smurfing Smurfing is a method used by some methamphetamine traffickers to acquire large quantities of precursor chemicals. Methamphetamine producers purchase the chemicals in quantities at or below legal thresholds from multiple retail locations. Methamphetamine producers often enlist the assistance of several friends or associates to increase the speed of the smurfing operations and the quantity of chemicals acquired. |
Table 1. Cities Reporting an Increase in Pseudoephedrine Smurfing in 2008
| Phoenix, Arizona | Indianapolis, Indiana |
| Los Angeles, California | Fort Scott, Kansas |
| Oakland, California | Pittsburg, Kansas |
| San Diego, California | Owensboro, Kentucky |
| San Francisco, California | Joplin, Missouri |
| San Jose, California | Kansas City, Missouri |
| Santa Cruz, California | St. Louis, Missouri |
| Colorado Springs, Colorado | Columbus, Nebraska |
| Denver, Colorado | North Platte, Nebraska |
| Atlanta, Georgia | Statesville, North Carolina |
| Canton, Georgia | Greenville, South Carolina |
| Carbondale, Illinois | Tulsa, Oklahoma |
| Springfield, Illinois |
Source: Federal, state, and local law enforcement reporting.
National-level drug prevalence data indicate a slight decrease in methamphetamine use; however, treatment admissions for methamphetamine abuse are stable. The latest data available from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) show a statistically significant decrease in the rates of past year use for methamphetamine from 2006 (0.8%) to 2007 (0.5%) for individuals aged 12 and older (see Table B5 in Appendix B). Prevalence of methamphetamine use among adolescents has also trended downward. Monitoring the Future data show decreases in past year use for methamphetamine between 2006 and 2007 among eighth graders (1.8% and 1.1% (statistically significant)), tenth graders (1.8% and 1.6%), and twelfth graders (2.5% and 1.7% (significant)). (See Table B6 in Appendix B.) Additionally, Quest Diagnostics data show that the rate of positive methamphetamine results in workplace drug tests declined 38.8 percent from the first quarter of 2007 (0.18%) to the fourth quarter of 2007 (0.11%) (see Figure B2 in Appendix B). Despite decreases in the prevalence of methamphetamine use, Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS) data show that the number of methamphetamine-related treatment admissions to publicly funded treatment facilities was relatively high and stable between 2005 (152,698) and 2006 (149,415), the latest year for which such data are available (see Table B7 in Appendix B). Moreover, TEDS data show that the proportion of amphetamine-related (including methamphetamine-related) treatment admissions to all drug -related treatment admissions (in publicly funded treatment facilities) was relatively stable at 8.2 percent in 2005 (152,698 of 1,861,209) and 8.3 percent in 2006 (149,415 of 1,800,717).
There are no estimates of the amount of methamphetamine that is smuggled from Canada into the United States. Law enforcement and intelligence reporting indicates that since 2006, Canada-based Asian DTOs, traditional organized crime groups, and outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMGs) have significantly increased the amount of methamphetamine that they produce and smuggle into the United States for distribution. In fact, law enforcement reporting from officials in the New England states indicates the presence of methamphetamine tablet distribution cells in their area that are supplied by sources in Canada. However, drug seizure data for methamphetamine do not show an increase in seizures at or between U.S.-Canada POEs. Some increase in seizures should have occurred if a significant and increasing flow of methamphetamine from Canada were taking place. Nonetheless, it is possible that an increase in methamphetamine flow from Canada has occurred, but quantities of the drug are undoubtedly entering the United States undetected at the U.S.-Canada border.
Domestic methamphetamine production will most likely increase moderately in the near term. The resurgence of small-scale methamphetamine production, the relocation of some Mexican methamphetamine producers from Mexico to California, and the emergence of large-scale pseudoephedrine smurfing operations throughout the country create conditions conducive to a moderate increase in domestic methamphetamine production, particularly in western states but also in some eastern states. For example, law enforcement reporting indicates that much of the bulk pseudoephedrine compiled through large-scale pseudoephedrine smurfing operations in the Southwest Region is destined for Atlanta, Georgia. A stable supply of bulk ephedrine shipments to Atlanta could result in a significant increase in methamphetamine production in the Southeast Region.
Increasing pseudoephedrine and ephedrine diversion and methamphetamine production on the part of Mexican DTOs in South American countries will quite likely continue in the near term, facilitating both an increase in methamphetamine production in Mexico and the subsequent flow of Mexico-produced methamphetamine into the United States. Conditions at many South American countries and their ports are favorable for ephedrine and pseudoephedrine diversion and smuggling. Such conditions include the high volume of commercial traffic through these countries, the free trade zone, and the lack of precursor chemical regulations. Moreover, many South American ports are susceptible to smuggling activity because of a lack of staffing and automated inspection systems and because of the limitations placed on customs inspectors by free trade zone mandates. As long as such activities are viable, Mexican DTOs will exploit South American sources for methamphetamine precursors and for production of the drug where possible.
1.
Superlabs are laboratories capable of producing 10
or more pounds of methamphetamine in a single production cycle.
2.
Blister packs are the most common form of packaging
for pseudoephedrine products distributed in the United States, and consist of a
clear plastic overlay that houses each pill or dosage unit (2 pills) individually.
The clear plastic housing is affixed to a backing that typically is constructed
of foil or a combination of foil and paper from which the pills must be removed
before use.
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