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National Drug
Intelligence Center
National Drug Threat Assessment 2005 -
Executive Summary
February 2005
Marijuana
The prevalence of marijuana and a continuing high demand for the
drug underlie its stability as one of the foremost drug threats. More than 95 percent of state and
local law enforcement agencies describe availability of the drug as high or moderate, and 75 percent of
illicit drug users aged 12 or older report current use of marijuana.
Trends and Developments
- Marijuana is readily available in drug markets throughout
the United States, and interagency estimates as well as law enforcement reporting, drug survey
data, and drug seizure data indicate that the availability of the drug is increasing.
- The escalating prevalence of higher potency marijuana such
as sinsemilla has resulted in an increase in average marijuana potency; however, high potency
marijuana constitutes a relatively small portion of the marijuana available throughout the United
States. Commercial-grade marijuana is the most widely available type throughout the
country.
- Demand is higher for marijuana than for any other illicit
drug; however, marijuana use among eighth, tenth, and twelfth graders as well as college students
has declined since peaking in the late 1990s.
Figure 5. Rates
of Past Year Use for Marijuana,
2000-2004
d-link
Source: Monitoring the Future.
- Mexico has been the principal source for U.S.-destined
foreign marijuana for decades, and already-high production levels escalated in 2003. Mexican DTOs
control nearly all marijuana production in Mexico, and an estimated 13,500 metric tons of
marijuana were potentially produced in Mexico during 2003--70 percent more than in the previous
year. Other major sources of foreign-produced marijuana include Canada, Colombia, and
Jamaica. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) estimates Canadian marijuana production at
800 to 2,000 metric tons. Most of the large-scale marijuana production in Canada is
controlled by outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMGs) and Asian criminal groups. Marijuana production in
Colombia, which is primarily controlled by Colombian DTOs, continues to be reported at 4,150
metric tons; however, this estimate has not been updated since 1996. Potential
marijuana production for Jamaica has not been reported since 1997.
- Domestic marijuana production appears to be increasing, in
part because of the rising involvement of U.S.-based Mexican criminal groups in large-scale cultivation
operations in the United States. Cannabis cultivation is extensive in certain areas, most
notably in the Pacific and Southeast Regions.
- Marijuana smuggling into the United States via borders with
Mexico and Canada appears to have increased overall; however, the volume of marijuana seized
along the Southwest Border greatly exceeds Northern Border amounts.
Figure 6. Principal
Outdoor Cannabis Cultivation Areas
d-link
Table 3. Top Five States for Marijuana
Eradication,
2003
Outdoor Plants
|
California
|
1,109,066 |
Tennessee
|
678,635 |
Kentucky
|
519,986 |
Hawaii
|
388,903 |
New York
|
95,385 |
U.S. Total
|
3,427,923 |
|
Indoor Plants
|
California
|
72,891 |
Washington
|
23,557 |
Florida
|
16,302 |
Oregon
|
15,944 |
Texas
|
11,722 |
U.S. Total
|
223,183 |
|
Source: Drug Enforcement
Administration Domestic Cannabis Eradication/Suppression Program.
Table 4. U.S.
Arrival Zone Seizures of Marijuana in Kilograms*,
2001-2003
|
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
Southwest Border |
1,059,037 |
1,034,635 |
1,173,128 |
Northern Border |
3,601 |
8,370 |
11,183 |
Source: El Paso
Intelligence Center.
* Numbers are rounded.
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PMAs for marijuana include Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los
Angeles, Miami, New York, Phoenix/Tucson, San Diego, and Seattle. These were determined based on
the level of distribution through these markets and, in some cases, the type(s) of
marijuana distributed. Use was not a determining factor for any marijuana PMA. The vast majority of
foreign-produced marijuana is transported in bulk via the Southwest Border; consequently,
marijuana shipments from markets such as Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, San Diego, and
Phoenix/Tucson occur more frequently and are often larger than other markets. While the volume of
marijuana distributed through Chicago, Miami, New York, and Seattle is small compared
with markets in the southwestern United States, these markets typically have played an important
role in distribution, particularly of marijuana smuggled across the Northern Border,
smuggled through the Caribbean, or produced domestically.
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