Outlook

The influence of Mexican DTOs on drug distribution in the NY/NJ HIDTA region will very likely increase in the coming year. Over the past several years, these DTOs have been expanding and strengthening their networks throughout the region, transporting a larger percentage of the cocaine and heroin available that is brought into the area and increasing their distribution activities. Colombian DTOs have relied heavily upon the Mexican DTOs to carry out transportation and distribution tasks. Mexican DTOs are well-positioned to provide increasing amounts of drugs to the HIDTA region because they have established highly efficient and reliable networks nationwide that enable them to obtain drugs and provide them to distributors in the region. As their influence increases, the HIDTA region may experience an increase in high-purity, Mexican methamphetamine availability and a larger volume of drugs transported overland.

The involvement of New York City-based DTOs and gangs in drug markets in the upstate HIDTA counties is likely to increase. These groups perceive law enforcement pressure to be less intense in upstate areas, and the increased profit margins and new consumer bases are attractive to groups wishing to expand their markets. They can be expected to increase deliveries to regular customers in the upstate areas and send more organization members upstate to distribute drugs on a temporary basis or take up permanent residence there. As a result, upstate population centers will grow as drug markets and will increasingly serve as distribution centers for the smaller cities and suburban areas around them.

Heroin abuse may increase in the NY/NJ HIDTA in the coming year. Heroin abuse has spread in recent years from traditional user groups to new bases such as younger abusers and abusers from middle- and upper-income areas. Many potential abusers in these new populations have yet to be exposed to the drug. Additionally, upstate markets, in which the profit margin for heroin is especially large and new populations of potential abusers exist, will most likely be the target of traffickers who want to increase their customer base.

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