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Outlook

Drug flow into the Houston HIDTA region in the near term will more than likely remain lower than in past years. Large amounts of drugs will most likely continue to be seized by law enforcement personnel conducting counterdrug operations in Mexico and other source areas as well as along the U.S.-Mexico border in South Texas. As long as these operations continue, drug shipments that would otherwise pass through the region will be seized before they reach the HIDTA region. Additionally, the ongoing presence of Mexican law enforcement and military personnel coupled with violence among cartels in areas across the border from South Texas may cause DTOs to reroute drug shipments through other areas along the Southwest Border. The high level of violence is not likely to subside in the near future.

The diversion and distribution of CPDs may decrease in the HIDTA region because of increased CPD monitoring. The increased oversight of Schedule II through V drugs in Texas will quite likely curtail some CPD diversion and distribution through doctor-shopping, visiting corrupt pain clinics, obtaining prescriptions from unscrupulous physicians, and forging prescriptions. However, traffickers may increasingly use other diversion methods not directly affected by enhanced regulations, such as purchasing CPDs on the Internet, stealing from pharmacies, and smuggling the drugs from Mexico.

Indoor cannabis cultivation in the Houston HIDTA region will most likely increase in response to the growing demand for higher-potency marijuana in Texas and the rest of the United States and because of the higher profit margin associated with the drug. Marijuana producers have consistently increased the average potency of marijuana through improved cannabis cultivation techniques, particularly at indoor grow sites, to meet rising demand for higher-potency marijuana throughout the United States as well as in the Southwest Region.

Weapons trafficking from Houston to Mexico may increase as Mexican traffickers attempt to fill the demand for weapons in Mexico. Ongoing battles for control of drug territories among Mexican DTOs and confrontations between Mexican military and law enforcement officers and DTOs have created an increasing demand for weapons and ammunition among drug traffickers. Weapons trafficking organizations operating in the HIDTA region will most likely expand their gun and ammunition smuggling operations into Mexico. Other entrepreneurial traffickers may also begin to smuggle weapons into Mexico because of the high profit potential.


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