National Drug Intelligence Center   West Texas High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area Drug Market Analysis 2009   March 2009   UNCLASSIFIED

Outlook

In the near term, drug flow from Mexico into the West Texas HIDTA region will occur at the lower levels experienced over the past 2 years. Violence occurring in Juárez and the increased military and Mexican and U.S. law enforcement presence on the U.S.-Mexico border will continue to cause traffickers to avoid the area for fear of losing their drug loads. The high level of violence is not very likely to subside in the near future. Mexican military and law enforcement operations that target the violence caused by DTOs fighting for control of the El Paso/Juárez plaza have further aggravated the situation, causing the violence to increase. Consequently, Mexican traffickers will likely seek alternative routes for their drug shipments, such as the eastern portion of the HIDTA region (where the Presidio POE is located) or Arizona and New Mexico, where less violence and fewer counterdrug operations are occurring. Drug flows have also been affected by increased seizures of cocaine, marijuana, and methamphetamine in Mexico and other foreign countries that have lessened the amount of illicit drugs available for smuggling into the United States through the West Texas HIDTA region.

The disruption of BA's command-and-control structure has hindered the gang's drug trafficking operations in the West Texas HIDTA region. Recent convictions of several key members and the various alliances between BA members and Mexican DTOs have weakened the structure of the organization. Other gangs, such as Crips and Latin Kings, have taken advantage of these circumstances to increase their drug trafficking activities in the area. BA is attempting to reorganize its structure to regain its position as the dominant drug traffickers; however, it is unlikely that the gang will be successful in doing so in the near term. Because BA exercised significant influence over drug smuggling in the HIDTA region, particularly in El Paso, its current weakened structure has likely disrupted the drug supply chain from Mexico.

Weapons trafficking from the West Texas HIDTA region to Mexico may increase as traffickers attempt to fill the demand created by the shortages of weapons and ammunition supplies in Juárez. Because of the ongoing confrontations among Mexican military and law enforcement officers and DTOs, the demand for weapons and ammunition in the El Paso/Juárez plaza is high. Weapons trafficking organizations in West Texas that supply Mexican DTOs operating in the plaza will most likely increase the amount of guns and ammunition that they smuggle into Mexico. Other entrepreneurial traffickers also may begin to smuggle weapons into Mexico because of the high profit potential.

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