U.S. Department of Justice
National Drug Intelligence Center
National Gang Intelligence Center
Eastern Pennsylvania Drug and Gang Threat Assessment 2011
March 2011

Outlook

NDIC assesses with high confidence that the influence of Mexican DTOs will increase in eastern Pennsylvania drug markets, particularly in areas not already dominated by New York area gangs. Areas where Mexican DTOs most likely will expand their operations include communities where Mexican migrant and permanent populations are rising, such as Harrisburg, Lancaster, and York.

NDIC assesses with moderate confidence that incidents of violence against law enforcement officers will increase. In some eastern Pennsylvania drug markets, criminal groups are increasingly using firearms during their criminal activities. Members of drug distribution gangs have recently become more aggressive toward law enforcement officers.

NDIC assesses with high confidence that heroin use will further increase in the near term as high availability and low prices encourage an increasing prescription opioid abuser population to transition to heroin. This increase will likely lead to greater stress on the healthcare system, since instances of heroin and prescription opioid treatment, overdose, and death increase with higher rates of use.

NDIC assesses with high confidence that gang members affiliated with New York area gangs will move farther into Pennsylvania drug markets, including central and western Pennsylvania, where drug prices are higher and where smaller communities often lack the law enforcement strength to deter highly organized drug distribution groups.